UNCW Seahawks vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (W)
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wake Forest Demon Deacons (56%) · Wake Forest Demon Deacons at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
9
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 56%
$3.5K
$87.85
94.3¢ → 99.1¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidWake Forest Demon Deacons at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA pagliacci4 | Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 94.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$106.5 | 56% 41-32 (73) |
NO NotJumpCTR | UNCW Seahawksavg 50¢ | $525 | $535.5 | +$10.5 | 54% 455-382 (837) |
FO forecastication4 | Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 89.4¢ | $276.61 | $300.01 | +$23.4 | 27% 102-276 (378) |
SM smithagent | Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 98¢ | $189.14 | $191.17 | +$2.03 | 43% 348-470 (818) |
38 38791873984189CTR | UNCW Seahawksavg 5.2¢ | $539.22 | $16.39 | -$22.06 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 92.1¢ | $13.82 | $14.86 | +$1.04 | 49% 1077-1133 (2210) |
 dips.<$100 | Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 98¢ | $11.7 | $7.85 | -$3.85 | 45% 537-651 (1188) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | UNCW Seahawksavg 5.6¢ | $30.31 | $5.16 | -$25.16 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | UNCW Seahawksavg 5.5¢ | $5.5 | $0.95 | -$4.55 | 45% 158-195 (353) |
Invested
$2,281.4
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$106.5
Record
56%
41-32 (73)
Invested
$525
Value
$535.5
PnL
+$10.5
Record
54%
455-382 (837)
Invested
$276.61
Value
$300.01
PnL
+$23.4
Record
27%
102-276 (378)
Invested
$189.14
Value
$191.17
PnL
+$2.03
Record
43%
348-470 (818)
Invested
$539.22
Value
$16.39
PnL
-$22.06
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$13.82
Value
$14.86
PnL
+$1.04
Record
49%
1077-1133 (2210)
dips.<$100Invested
$11.7
Value
$7.85
PnL
-$3.85
Record
45%
537-651 (1188)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$30.31
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$25.16
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$4.55
Record
45%
158-195 (353)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
pagliacci4
Wake Forest Demon Deacons — $2.4K
NotJump
CTRUNCW Seahawks — $535.5
forecastication4
Wake Forest Demon Deacons — $300.01
smithagent
Wake Forest Demon Deacons — $191.17
38791873984189
CTRUNCW Seahawks — $16.39
Pan9X
Wake Forest Demon Deacons — $14.86
dips.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons — $7.85
RN1
CTRUNCW Seahawks — $5.16
thirdt1me
CTRUNCW Seahawks — $0.95