Mercyhurst Lakers vs. St. Bonaventure Bonnies (W)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold St. Bonaventure Bonnies (57%) · St. Bonaventure Bonnies at 86¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Mercyhurst Lakers14¢St. Bonaventure Bonnies86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Consensus Traders

St. Bonaventure Bonnies 57%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$485.92

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 86¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSt. Bonaventure Bonnies at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mercyhurst Lakers14%

St. Bonaventure Bonnies86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

St. Bonaventure Bonnies4 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,787

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Mercyhurst Lakers3 traders

Total Value$737.1

Total Shares5,627

Combined PnL-$804.77

St. Bonaventure Bonnies — 57%Mercyhurst Lakers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on St. Bonaventure Bonnies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMercyhurst Lakers 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSt. Bonaventure Bonnies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000St. Bonaventure Bonnies 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 71¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$832.55	48% 1419-1557 (2976)
RN1	St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 73.6¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$317.34	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
TH thirdt1me	St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 73.9¢	$700.74	$824.54	+$123.8	43% 123-163 (286)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 28.1¢	$1.5K	$692.49	-$801.73	29% 173-422 (595)
PA Pan9X<$100	St. Bonaventure Bonniesavg 71.6¢	$90.7	$85.43	+$17	49% 683-724 (1407)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 14.4¢	$46.69	$43.83	-$2.86	53% 5779-5161 (10940)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Mercyhurst Lakersavg 16¢	$0.95	$0.77	-$0.18	23% 36-120 (156)

38791873984189

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Invested

$3,799.02

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$832.55

Record

48%

1419-1557 (2976)

RN1

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Invested

$1,785.36

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$317.34

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

thirdt1me

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Invested

$700.74

Value

$824.54

PnL

+$123.8

Record

43%

123-163 (286)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$1,494.22

Value

$692.49

PnL

-$801.73

Record

29%

173-422 (595)

Pan9X<$100

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Invested

$90.7

Value

$85.43

PnL

+$17

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$46.69

Value

$43.83

PnL

-$2.86

Record

53%

5779-5161 (10940)

OddstormCTR<$100

Mercyhurst Lakers

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.18

Record

23%

36-120 (156)

Research grade

AvoidSt. Bonaventure Bonnies at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

St. Bonaventure Bonnies

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on St. Bonaventure Bonnies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMercyhurst Lakers 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedSt. Bonaventure Bonnies 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000St. Bonaventure Bonnies 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that St. Bonaventure Bonnies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.