Holy Cross Crusaders vs. Brown Bears (W)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Holy Cross Crusaders (70%) · Holy Cross Crusaders at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Holy Cross Crusaders97¢Brown Bears3¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Holy Cross Crusaders

Consensus Traders

Holy Cross Crusaders 70%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$525.16

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 96.5¢

+41% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHoly Cross Crusaders at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Holy Cross Crusaders

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Holy Cross Crusaders97%

Brown Bears4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Holy Cross Crusaders7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,134

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Brown Bears3 traders

Total Value$433.85

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL-$616.13

Holy Cross Crusaders — 70%Brown Bears — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Holy Cross Crusaders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBrown Bears 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBrown Bears 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHoly Cross Crusaders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Holy Cross Crusaders 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 92.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$47.38	46% 580-694 (1274)
38 38791873984189	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 43¢	$852.86	$1.2K	+$641.49	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
RN1	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 47.3¢	$464.91	$884.35	+$419.44	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
NO NotJumpCTR	Brown Bearsavg 50¢	$525	$300	+$12.5	54% 506-431 (937)
SM smithagent	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 78.8¢	$239.15	$273.2	+$34.05	43% 391-518 (909)
TH thirdt1me	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 63.2¢	$189.83	$270.45	+$80.62	46% 173-206 (379)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Brown Bearsavg 57.3¢	$743.64	$129.85	-$613.79	33% 340-676 (1016)
PA Pan9X<$100	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 54¢	$25.04	$36.49	+$11.45	49% 1097-1151 (2248)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Brown Bearsavg 47.1¢	$18.84	$4	-$14.84	84% 437-84 (521)
CI cigarettes<$100	Holy Cross Crusadersavg 52.4¢	$2.27	$3.89	+$1.63	53% 6285-5568 (11853)

dips.

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$2,040.88

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$47.38

Record

46%

580-694 (1274)

38791873984189

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$852.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$641.49

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

RN1

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$464.91

Value

$884.35

PnL

+$419.44

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

NotJumpCTR

Brown Bears

Invested

$525

Value

$300

PnL

+$12.5

Record

54%

506-431 (937)

smithagent

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$239.15

Value

$273.2

PnL

+$34.05

Record

43%

391-518 (909)

thirdt1me

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$189.83

Value

$270.45

PnL

+$80.62

Record

46%

173-206 (379)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Brown Bears

Invested

$743.64

Value

$129.85

PnL

-$613.79

Record

33%

340-676 (1016)

Pan9X<$100

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$25.04

Value

$36.49

PnL

+$11.45

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Brown Bears

Invested

$18.84

Value

PnL

-$14.84

Record

84%

437-84 (521)

cigarettes<$100

Holy Cross Crusaders

Invested

$2.27

Value

$3.89

PnL

+$1.63

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

Research grade

AvoidHoly Cross Crusaders at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Holy Cross Crusaders

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Holy Cross Crusaders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBrown Bears 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBrown Bears 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHoly Cross Crusaders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Holy Cross Crusaders 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Holy Cross Crusaders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.