Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold ZOTIX, while the market favors Vitality Academy (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: ZOTIX vs Vitality Academy (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold ZOTIX (83%) · ZOTIX at 0.1¢ · $661 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
ZOTIX
6
ZOTIX 83%
$661.17
$11.29
53.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidZOTIX at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality Academy 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on ZOTIX. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111 | Vitality Academyavg 42.9¢ | $288.16 | $356.42 | +$68.26 | 54% 75-64 (139) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR | ZOTIXavg 58¢ | $283.01 | $264.82 | -$18.19 | 64% 63-35 (98) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | ZOTIXavg 64.5¢ | $31.65 | $33.97 | +$2.32 | 60% 648-431 (1079) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | ZOTIXavg 52.9¢ | $26.17 | $4.94 | -$21.22 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | ZOTIXavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $1 | -$4.9 | 45% 234-284 (518) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | ZOTIXavg 27.3¢ | $15 | $0.03 | -$14.98 | 64% 267-152 (419) |
Invested
$288.16
Value
$356.42
PnL
+$68.26
Record
54%
75-64 (139)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTRInvested
$283.01
Value
$264.82
PnL
-$18.19
Record
64%
63-35 (98)
Invested
$31.65
Value
$33.97
PnL
+$2.32
Record
60%
648-431 (1079)
Invested
$26.17
Value
$4.94
PnL
-$21.22
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$1
PnL
-$4.9
Record
45%
234-284 (518)
Invested
$15
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$14.98
Record
64%
267-152 (419)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.