Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold ex-Zero Tenacity (50%) · ex-Zero Tenacity at 88¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
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Neutral
ex-Zero Tenacity
8
ex-Zero Tenacity 50%
$5.0K
$757.92
69.3¢ → 87.5¢
+26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Neutralex-Zero Tenacity at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on ex-Zero Tenacity. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 68.6¢ | $3.4K | $4.2K | +$854.98 | 54% 135-113 (248) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 74.7¢ | $601.47 | $672.62 | +$71.15 | 56% 3856-3022 (6878) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Spirit Academyavg 29.9¢ | $187.36 | $75.28 | -$112.09 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
GO Gooooooollllllllll<$100 | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 69¢ | $22.57 | $28.13 | +$5.56 | 46% 512-591 (1103) |
GT gt7238CTR<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 35¢ | $81.9 | $28.08 | -$53.82 | 4% 18-456 (474) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 29¢ | $17.2 | $8.3 | -$8.9 | 69% 2586-1181 (3767) |
LR lryyy<$100 | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $4.3 | +$1 | 45% 233-284 (517) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 12¢ | $0.67 | $0.69 | +$0.03 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
Invested
$3,365.89
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$854.98
Record
54%
135-113 (248)
Invested
$601.47
Value
$672.62
PnL
+$71.15
Record
56%
3856-3022 (6878)
Invested
$187.36
Value
$75.28
PnL
-$112.09
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
Invested
$22.57
Value
$28.13
PnL
+$5.56
Record
46%
512-591 (1103)
Invested
$81.9
Value
$28.08
PnL
-$53.82
Record
4%
18-456 (474)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$8.9
Record
69%
2586-1181 (3767)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$1
Record
45%
233-284 (517)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.03
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F
ex-Zero Tenacity — $4.2K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ex-Zero Tenacity — $672.62
cigarettes
CTRSpirit Academy — $75.28
Gooooooollllllllll
ex-Zero Tenacity — $28.13
gt7238
CTRSpirit Academy — $28.08
purplegatto
CTRSpirit Academy — $8.3
lryyy
ex-Zero Tenacity — $4.3
sentrio
CTRSpirit Academy — $0.69