Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold ex-Zero Tenacity (80%) · ex-Zero Tenacity at 70¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10
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Neutral
ex-Zero Tenacity
5
ex-Zero Tenacity 80%
$2.6K
-$20.98
69.8¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Neutralex-Zero Tenacity at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 70¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$16.3 | 53% 120-105 (225) |
GT gt7238CTR<$100 | ILLYRIANSavg 38¢ | $93.08 | $80.84 | -$12.25 | 2% 9-438 (447) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 66¢ | $33.06 | $33.56 | +$0.5 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 62¢ | $13.86 | $14.97 | +$1.12 | 62% 1295-778 (2073) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | ex-Zero Tenacityavg 65¢ | $63.06 | $10.05 | +$5.95 | 48% 407-442 (849) |
Invested
$2,442.03
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$16.3
Record
53%
120-105 (225)
Invested
$93.08
Value
$80.84
PnL
-$12.25
Record
2%
9-438 (447)
Invested
$33.06
Value
$33.56
PnL
+$0.5
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$14.97
PnL
+$1.12
Record
62%
1295-778 (2073)
Invested
$63.06
Value
$10.05
PnL
+$5.95
Record
48%
407-442 (849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.