Counter-Strike: your end vs Damajuana (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Damajuana (18%) · Damajuana at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

your end44¢Damajuana56¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Damajuana

Consensus Traders

Damajuana 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$292.8

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 56.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDamajuana at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Damajuana

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

your end44%

Damajuana56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Damajuana2 traders

Total Value$825.19

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL+$58.52

your end9 traders

Total Value$614.49

Total Shares1,627

Combined PnL-$351.32

Damajuana — 18%your end — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Damajuana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpyour end 100% · 1

Diverging

ctryour end 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedyour end 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000your end 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Damajuanaavg 61.1¢	$778.03	$801.6	+$49.02	7% 3-38 (41)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	your endavg 37.9¢	$297.2	$282.18	-$15.02	38% 93-154 (247)
└ your end leg	your endavg 37.9¢	$260.7	$213.18	-$47.52
└ Damajuana leg	Damajuanaavg 36.5¢	$36.5	$69	+$32.5
GA GaditimaCTR	your endavg 71.8¢	$564.12	$203.08	-$201.8	48% 32-35 (67)
31 319113331313111CTR	your endavg 45.1¢	$214.2	$182.53	-$31.67	35% 21-39 (60)
VeryLucky888CTR	your endavg 67.9¢	$328.24	$75.81	-$61.46	49% 60-63 (123)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	your endavg 52¢	$83.2	$69.6	-$13.6	—
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	your endavg 65.6¢	$96.49	$54.41	-$45.02	48% 13-14 (27)
PA Pan9X	Damajuanaavg 36.3¢	$105.66	$23.59	+$9.5	48% 173-188 (361)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	your endavg 35¢	$10.5	$13.05	+$2.55	20% 37-151 (188)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	your endavg 31¢	$6.82	$6.71	-$0.11	57% 43-32 (75)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	your endavg 41.5¢	$6.65	$6.69	+$0.01	50% 185-187 (372)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	your endavg 40¢	$2.82	$2.61	-$0.21	57% 16-12 (28)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Damajuana

Invested

$778.03

Value

$801.6

PnL

+$49.02

Record

3-38 (41)

cigarettesARB<$100

your end

Invested

$297.2

Value

$282.18

PnL

-$15.02

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

Both legs:

your end$260.737.9¢-$47.52

Damajuana$36.536.5¢+$32.5

GaditimaCTR

your end

Invested

$564.12

Value

$203.08

PnL

-$201.8

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

319113331313111CTR

your end

Invested

$214.2

Value

$182.53

PnL

-$31.67

Record

35%

21-39 (60)

VeryLucky888CTR

your end

Invested

$328.24

Value

$75.81

PnL

-$61.46

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

your end

Invested

$83.2

Value

$69.6

PnL

-$13.6

Record

—

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

your end

Invested

$96.49

Value

$54.41

PnL

-$45.02

Record

48%

13-14 (27)

Pan9X

Damajuana

Invested

$105.66

Value

$23.59

PnL

+$9.5

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

your end

Invested

$10.5

Value

$13.05

PnL

+$2.55

Record

20%

37-151 (188)

lryyyCTR<$100

your end

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

43-32 (75)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

your end

Invested

$6.65

Value

$6.69

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

185-187 (372)

shiifooCTR<$100

your end

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$0.21

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

Research grade

NeutralDamajuana at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Damajuana

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Damajuana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpyour end 100% · 1

Diverging

ctryour end 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedyour end 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000your end 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Damajuana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.