Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Regular Season

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold MASONIC (50%) · MASONIC at 100¢ · $999 held · ends Nov 10

XI Esport<1¢MASONIC>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MASONIC

Consensus Traders

MASONIC 50%

Total Value

$998.63

Combined PnL

$339.2

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 100¢

+62% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

XI Esport0%

MASONIC100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MASONIC4 traders

Total Value$998.4

Total Shares999

Combined PnL+$386.48

XI Esport4 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares459

Combined PnL-$47.28

MASONIC — 50%XI Esport — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on MASONIC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on MASONIC) and the top 1000 (7 on XI Esport) disagree here.

ctrMASONIC 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMASONIC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000XI Esport 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	MASONICavg 57¢	$252.65	$443.21	+$190.56	47% 28-32 (60)
VeryLucky888	MASONICavg 54.5¢	$151.71	$289.55	+$137.83	52% 59-54 (113)
SU suitcase6628	MASONICavg 87¢	$165.3	$189.91	+$24.61	—
PA Pan9X<$100	MASONICavg 55.8¢	$56.96	$75.73	+$33.48	48% 171-185 (356)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	XI Esportavg 1.3¢	$3.9	$0.15	-$3.75	38% 88-145 (233)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	XI Esportavg 38¢	$41.42	$0.05	-$41.37	23% 30-102 (132)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	XI Esportavg 39¢	$0.43	$0.01	-$0.41	30% 60-139 (199)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	XI Esportavg 8¢	$1.76	$0.01	-$1.75	60% 37-25 (62)

Gaditima

MASONIC

Invested

$252.65

Value

$443.21

PnL

+$190.56

Record

47%

28-32 (60)

VeryLucky888

MASONIC

Invested

$151.71

Value

$289.55

PnL

+$137.83

Record

52%

59-54 (113)

suitcase6628

MASONIC

Invested

$165.3

Value

$189.91

PnL

+$24.61

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$56.96

Value

$75.73

PnL

+$33.48

Record

48%

171-185 (356)

cigarettesCTR<$100

XI Esport

Invested

$3.9

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$3.75

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

biying88888CTR<$100

XI Esport

Invested

$41.42

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$41.37

Record

23%

30-102 (132)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

XI Esport

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.41

Record

30%

60-139 (199)

lryyyCTR<$100

XI Esport

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.75

Record

60%

37-25 (62)

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on MASONIC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on MASONIC) and the top 1000 (7 on XI Esport) disagree here.

ctrMASONIC 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMASONIC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000XI Esport 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MASONIC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.