Counter-Strike: WW Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold WW Team (67%) · WW Team at 73¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

WW Team73¢G2 Ares27¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

WW Team

Consensus Traders

WW Team 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$163.62

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 72.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralWW Team at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

WW Team

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

WW Team73%

G2 Ares28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

WW Team6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,407

Combined PnL+$155.95

G2 Ares3 traders

Total Value$208.95

Total Shares522

Combined PnL+$7.67

WW Team — 67%G2 Ares — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on WW Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrG2 Ares 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000G2 Ares 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	WW Teamavg 66.7¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$224.42	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
31 319113331313111	WW Teamavg 78.7¢	$1.2K	$570.82	-$64.1	55% 202-164 (366)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	WW Teamavg 68.2¢	$972.49	$399.15	+$4.78	61% 196-125 (321)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	G2 Aresavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ WW Team leg	WW Teamavg 50¢	$131.25	$175.88	+$44.63
└ G2 Ares leg	G2 Aresavg 50¢	$131.25	$86.63	-$44.62
JU JuiceFarmCTR	G2 Aresavg 37¢	$151.95	$135.52	-$16.43	54% 59-50 (109)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	WW Teamavg 76¢	$103.27	$118.68	+$21.41	43% 851-1135 (1986)
└ WW Team leg	WW Teamavg 76¢	$64.72	$63.87	-$0.85
└ G2 Ares leg	G2 Aresavg 15.8¢	$34.6	$54.81	+$22.26
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	G2 Aresavg 37.1¢	$45.14	$69.37	+$24.22	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
CI cigarettes<$100	WW Teamavg 75.4¢	$59.09	$61.53	+$2.45	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
poshposh<$100	WW Teamavg 79¢	$58.81	$46.84	-$11.97	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
SE sentrio<$100	WW Teamavg 76¢	$28.11	$28.48	+$0.37	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	G2 Aresavg 51¢	$4.18	$4.06	-$0.12	46% 467-554 (1021)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

WW Team

Invested

$2,190.85

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$224.42

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

319113331313111

WW Team

Invested

$1,162.62

Value

$570.82

PnL

-$64.1

Record

55%

202-164 (366)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

WW Team

Invested

$972.49

Value

$399.15

PnL

+$4.78

Record

61%

196-125 (321)

NotJumpARB<$100

G2 Ares

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

WW Team$131.2550¢+$44.63

G2 Ares$131.2550¢-$44.62

JuiceFarmCTR

G2 Ares

Invested

$151.95

Value

$135.52

PnL

-$16.43

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

WW Team

Invested

$103.27

Value

$118.68

PnL

+$21.41

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

Both legs:

WW Team$64.7276¢-$0.85

G2 Ares$34.615.8¢+$22.26

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

G2 Ares

Invested

$45.14

Value

$69.37

PnL

+$24.22

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

cigarettes<$100

WW Team

Invested

$59.09

Value

$61.53

PnL

+$2.45

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

poshposh<$100

WW Team

Invested

$58.81

Value

$46.84

PnL

-$11.97

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

sentrio<$100

WW Team

Invested

$28.11

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$0.37

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

G2 Ares

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

467-554 (1021)

Research grade

NeutralWW Team at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

WW Team

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on WW Team. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrG2 Ares 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000G2 Ares 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that WW Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.