Counter-Strike: Winx vs X-CITY - Map 2 Winner

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Winx (50%) · Winx at 100¢ · $655 held · ends Oct 28

Winx>99¢X-CITY<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Winx

Consensus Traders

Winx 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$655.1

Combined PnL

$16.2

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralWinx at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Winx

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Winx100%

X-CITY0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Winx2 traders

Total Value$316.25

Total Shares316

Combined PnL+$34.68

X-CITY2 traders

Total Value$92.88

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$18.47

Winx — 50%X-CITY — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Winxavg 57.3¢	$249.73	$245.96	-$3.76	53% 2205-1970 (4175)
└ X-CITY leg	X-CITYavg 43.5¢	$105.47	$146.59	+$41.13
└ Winx leg	Winxavg 57.3¢	$144.26	$99.37	-$44.89
VP Vps1	Winxavg 99.9¢	$220.41	$220.52	+$0.11	96% 262-12 (274)
poshposh<$100	Winxavg 63.9¢	$61.16	$95.73	+$34.57	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
1am1bCTR<$100	X-CITYavg 77.4¢	$96.75	$75.63	-$21.13	56% 180-139 (319)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	X-CITYavg 51.2¢	$14.6	$17.26	+$2.65	52% 9103-8501 (17604)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Winx

Invested

$249.73

Value

$245.96

PnL

-$3.76

Record

53%

2205-1970 (4175)

Both legs:

X-CITY$105.4743.5¢+$41.13

Winx$144.2657.3¢-$44.89

Vps1

Winx

Invested

$220.41

Value

$220.52

PnL

+$0.11

Record

96%

262-12 (274)

poshposh<$100

Winx

Invested

$61.16

Value

$95.73

PnL

+$34.57

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

1am1bCTR<$100

X-CITY

Invested

$96.75

Value

$75.63

PnL

-$21.13

Record

56%

180-139 (319)

0x4f2CTR<$100

X-CITY

Invested

$14.6

Value

$17.26

PnL

+$2.65

Record

52%

9103-8501 (17604)

Research grade

NeutralWinx at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Winx

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Winx wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.