Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold X-CITY, while the market favors Winx (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Winx vs X-CITY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold X-CITY (86%) · X-CITY at 0.1¢ · $883 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
X-CITY
7
X-CITY 86%
$883.04
-$267.87
56.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidX-CITY at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Winx 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on X-CITY. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR | X-CITYavg 48.8¢ | $550.23 | $574.29 | +$24.05 | 53% 2207-1972 (4179) |
TE testBruno2 | Winxavg 75.5¢ | $370.15 | $182.23 | -$24.39 | 58% 813-600 (1413) |
 1am1bCTR | X-CITYavg 75¢ | $225 | $70.5 | -$154.5 | 56% 180-143 (323) |
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100 | X-CITYavg 37.4¢ | $51.61 | $30.86 | -$20.75 | 52% 9103-8504 (17607) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | X-CITYavg 57.6¢ | $75.59 | $25.14 | -$50.46 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | X-CITYavg 68.2¢ | $37.05 | $0.02 | -$32.03 | 60% 3251-2180 (5431) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | X-CITYavg 69¢ | $9.8 | $0.01 | -$9.79 | 55% 8110-6552 (14662) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTRInvested
$550.23
Value
$574.29
PnL
+$24.05
Record
53%
2207-1972 (4179)
Invested
$370.15
Value
$182.23
PnL
-$24.39
Record
58%
813-600 (1413)
1am1bCTRInvested
$225
Value
$70.5
PnL
-$154.5
Record
56%
180-143 (323)
Invested
$51.61
Value
$30.86
PnL
-$20.75
Record
52%
9103-8504 (17607)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$75.59
Value
$25.14
PnL
-$50.46
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$37.05
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$32.03
Record
60%
3251-2180 (5431)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$9.79
Record
55%
8110-6552 (14662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.