Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group D

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold BESTIA (75%) · BESTIA at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Wildcard<1¢BESTIA>99¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BESTIA

Consensus Traders

BESTIA 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$510.77

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 100¢

+58% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBESTIA at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Wildcard0%

BESTIA100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BESTIA3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,965

Combined PnL-$471.07

Wildcard1 trader

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares247

Combined PnL-$39.71

BESTIA — 75%Wildcard — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhctARB<$100	Wildcardavg 25.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$59.81	54% 506-439 (945)
└ Wildcard leg	Wildcardavg 25.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$144.9
└ BESTIA leg	BESTIAavg 77.7¢	$1.1K	$974.48	-$85.09
JohnLKellyJr	BESTIAavg 62.8¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$522.29	52% 1238-1128 (2366)
TO TommyLeePeeca	BESTIAavg 65.6¢	$2.6K	$315.54	+$52.64	53% 1093-951 (2044)
LO lonmi2511<$100	BESTIAavg 99.9¢	$5	$3.57	-$1.42	62% 1137-689 (1826)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Wildcardavg 16.1¢	$39.83	$0.12	-$39.71	38% 3268-5352 (8620)

pnhctARB<$100

Wildcard

Invested

$2,121.88

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$59.81

Record

54%

506-439 (945)

Both legs:

Wildcard$1,062.325.1¢+$144.9

BESTIA$1,059.5877.7¢-$85.09

JohnLKellyJr

BESTIA

Invested

$1,659.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$522.29

Record

52%

1238-1128 (2366)

TommyLeePeeca

BESTIA

Invested

$2,586.88

Value

$315.54

PnL

+$52.64

Record

53%

1093-951 (2044)

lonmi2511<$100

BESTIA

Invested

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$1.42

Record

62%

1137-689 (1826)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Wildcard

Invested

$39.83

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$39.71

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

Research grade

NeutralBESTIA at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BESTIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.