Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs BARCA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wildcard (40%) · Wildcard at 60¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Wildcard
5
Wildcard 40%
$16.9K
$0.15
59.2¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralWildcard at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Wildcard. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlll | Wildcardavg 59¢ | $15.7K | $9.3K | +$78.45 | 54% 305-262 (567) |
VI vibing123CTR | BARCAavg 41¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | -$64.39 | 52% 1575-1457 (3032) |
RA Rayaya | Wildcardavg 60¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$15 | 60% 1179-782 (1961) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | BARCAavg 40¢ | $511.33 | $511.33 | -$0 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
HU humbleboyCTR<$100 | BARCAavg 40¢ | $86.93 | $88.02 | +$1.09 | 55% 515-428 (943) |
Invested
$15,667.31
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$78.45
Record
54%
305-262 (567)
Invested
$5,280.77
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$64.39
Record
52%
1575-1457 (3032)
Invested
$1,799.99
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$15
Record
60%
1179-782 (1961)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$511.33
Value
$511.33
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$86.93
Value
$88.02
PnL
+$1.09
Record
55%
515-428 (943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.