Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffs

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (33%) · Iberian Soul at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

WBT Academy44¢Iberian Soul56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 33%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$185.5

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 56¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

WBT Academy44%

Iberian Soul56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iberian Soul3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,436

Combined PnL-$169.17

WBT Academy6 traders

Total Value$489.38

Total Shares1,661

Combined PnL-$16.33

Iberian Soul — 33%WBT Academy — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWBT Academy 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000WBT Academy 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
diceking	Iberian Soulavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$23.3	57% 324-240 (564)
hasobidale	Iberian Soulavg 77¢	$847	$654.5	-$192.5	66% 225-118 (343)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	WBT Academyavg 28.7¢	$217.36	$189.56	-$24	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	WBT Academyavg 42.3¢	$85.6	$89.01	+$3.42	52% 9184-8561 (17745)
poshposhCTR<$100	WBT Academyavg 27¢	$73.95	$68.47	-$4.11	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100	WBT Academyavg 34.8¢	$49.67	$55.58	+$5.91	54% 2454-2111 (4565)
itwasawholethingCTR<$100	WBT Academyavg 25¢	$45.02	$45.02	+$0	59% 56-39 (95)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR<$100	WBT Academyavg 24¢	$39.28	$41.74	+$2.46	53% 760-672 (1432)
HRTrading<$100	Iberian Soulavg 75¢	$4.2	$4.17	+$0.03	53% 5610-5034 (10644)

diceking

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,281.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$23.3

Record

57%

324-240 (564)

hasobidale

Iberian Soul

Invested

$847

Value

$654.5

PnL

-$192.5

Record

66%

225-118 (343)

topdogbigboiCTR

WBT Academy

Invested

$217.36

Value

$189.56

PnL

-$24

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

0x4f2CTR<$100

WBT Academy

Invested

$85.6

Value

$89.01

PnL

+$3.42

Record

52%

9184-8561 (17745)

poshposhCTR<$100

WBT Academy

Invested

$73.95

Value

$68.47

PnL

-$4.11

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100

WBT Academy

Invested

$49.67

Value

$55.58

PnL

+$5.91

Record

54%

2454-2111 (4565)

itwasawholethingCTR<$100

WBT Academy

Invested

$45.02

Value

$45.02

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

56-39 (95)

WiretransferxyzCTR<$100

WBT Academy

Invested

$39.28

Value

$41.74

PnL

+$2.46

Record

53%

760-672 (1432)

HRTrading<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWBT Academy 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000WBT Academy 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.