Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs The Last Resort (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold The Last Resort (86%) · The Last Resort at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Walczaki22¢The Last Resort78¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

The Last Resort

Consensus Traders

The Last Resort 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$119.47

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 78.5¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralThe Last Resort at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

The Last Resort

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Walczaki22%

The Last Resort79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

The Last Resort6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,334

Combined PnL+$124.73

Walczaki1 trader

Total Value$21.96

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$5.25

The Last Resort — 86%Walczaki — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on The Last Resort. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThe Last Resort 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000The Last Resort 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	The Last Resortavg 54.7¢	$890.16	$981.94	+$91.77	64% 63-35 (98)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	The Last Resortavg 47.3¢	$748.57	$865.83	+$117.26	54% 75-64 (139)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 47.3¢	$521.12	$561.52	+$40.4
└ Walczaki leg	Walczakiavg 36.6¢	$227.45	$304.31	+$76.86
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	The Last Resortavg 57.8¢	$225.67	$253.8	+$28.13	28% 161-410 (571)
CI cigarettes	The Last Resortavg 57.5¢	$182.3	$170.15	-$12.15	53% 5734-5130 (10864)
38 38791873984189	The Last Resortavg 53.4¢	$152.86	$146.08	-$6.79	48% 1381-1515 (2896)
PA pauleta23	The Last Resortavg 68¢	$136	$145	+$9	31% 210-477 (687)
LR lryyy<$100	The Last Resortavg 59.8¢	$75.33	$90.09	+$14.76	45% 234-284 (518)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Walczakiavg 59.9¢	$39.41	$21.96	-$5.25	48% 673-715 (1388)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

The Last Resort

Invested

$890.16

Value

$981.94

PnL

+$91.77

Record

64%

63-35 (98)

319113331313111ARB<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$748.57

Value

$865.83

PnL

+$117.26

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$521.1247.3¢+$40.4

Walczaki$227.4536.6¢+$76.86

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

The Last Resort

Invested

$225.67

Value

$253.8

PnL

+$28.13

Record

28%

161-410 (571)

cigarettes

The Last Resort

Invested

$182.3

Value

$170.15

PnL

-$12.15

Record

53%

5734-5130 (10864)

38791873984189

The Last Resort

Invested

$152.86

Value

$146.08

PnL

-$6.79

Record

48%

1381-1515 (2896)

pauleta23

The Last Resort

Invested

$136

Value

$145

PnL

+$9

Record

31%

210-477 (687)

lryyy<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$75.33

Value

$90.09

PnL

+$14.76

Record

45%

234-284 (518)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Walczaki

Invested

$39.41

Value

$21.96

PnL

-$5.25

Record

48%

673-715 (1388)

Research grade

NeutralThe Last Resort at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

The Last Resort

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on The Last Resort. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThe Last Resort 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000The Last Resort 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that The Last Resort wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.