Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports - Map 2 Winner
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Virtus.pro (56%) · Virtus.pro at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Virtus.pro
9
Virtus.pro 56%
$3.0K
$127.84
80.9¢ → 97.7¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralVirtus.pro at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Virtus.proavg 78.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$128.03 | 56% 4056-3167 (7223) |
31 319113331313111 | Virtus.proavg 80.7¢ | $317.87 | $346.7 | +$28.83 | 57% 173-133 (306) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Virtus.proavg 83.7¢ | $436.64 | $308.93 | +$30.56 | 61% 156-101 (257) |
 Future-Tarot-Trader | Virtus.proavg 91.9¢ | $752 | $218.08 | +$0.01 | 55% 141-117 (258) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Virtus.proavg 90¢ | $90.5 | $93.01 | +$2.51 | 29% 236-577 (813) |
NO NotJumpCTR | BakS eSportsavg 50¢ | $400.76 | $58.58 | -$18.17 | 52% 812-742 (1554) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 13.2¢ | $51.24 | $15.56 | -$35.68 | 50% 2506-2466 (4972) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 11.1¢ | $17.2 | $8.49 | -$8.71 | 37% 1018-1700 (2718) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | BakS eSportsavg 29¢ | $2.24 | $2.7 | +$0.46 | 42% 990-1359 (2349) |
Invested
$1,780.76
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$128.03
Record
56%
4056-3167 (7223)
Invested
$317.87
Value
$346.7
PnL
+$28.83
Record
57%
173-133 (306)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$436.64
Value
$308.93
PnL
+$30.56
Record
61%
156-101 (257)
Future-Tarot-TraderInvested
$752
Value
$218.08
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
141-117 (258)
Invested
$90.5
Value
$93.01
PnL
+$2.51
Record
29%
236-577 (813)
Invested
$400.76
Value
$58.58
PnL
-$18.17
Record
52%
812-742 (1554)
Invested
$51.24
Value
$15.56
PnL
-$35.68
Record
50%
2506-2466 (4972)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$8.49
PnL
-$8.71
Record
37%
1018-1700 (2718)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.46
Record
42%
990-1359 (2349)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Virtus.pro — $1.9K
319113331313111
Virtus.pro — $346.7
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
Virtus.pro — $308.93
Future-Tarot-Trader
Virtus.pro — $218.08
BillBenter2026
Virtus.pro — $93.01
NotJump
CTRBakS eSports — $58.58
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRBakS eSports — $15.56
topdogbigboi
CTRBakS eSports — $8.49
sentrio
CTRBakS eSports — $2.7