Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

20 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (50%) · Vitality at 100¢ · $165K held · ends Oct 29

Vitality>99¢Natus Vincere<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$164.6K

Combined PnL

$-13.7K

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

20 of 40 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality100%

Natus Vincere0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality20 traders

Total Value$124.7K

Total Shares142,452

Combined PnL$-6.5K

Natus Vincere20 traders

Total Value$37.9K

Total Shares133,045

Combined PnL$-7.2K

Vitality — 50%Natus Vincere — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Vitalityavg 72.1¢	$33.1K	$28.1K	$-5.0K	54% 56016-48150 (104166)
PN pnhct	Vitalityavg 66.5¢	$26.4K	$27.0K	+$575.37	54% 474-405 (879)
46 467j6yj	Vitalityavg 96.7¢	$24.6K	$25.4K	+$831.62	97% 3248-113 (3361)
AA aaaa298	Vitalityavg 92.7¢	$17.3K	$9.2K	$-1.8K	58% 760-540 (1300)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Vitalityavg 71.9¢	$9.1K	$9.1K	+$15.81	52% 13642-12471 (26113)
cruzNBACTR	Natus Vincereavg 37¢	$6.1K	$8.8K	+$2.6K	42% 396-554 (950)
II iii252CTR	Natus Vincereavg 25.1¢	$12.1K	$8.0K	$-4.1K	57% 1112-856 (1968)
saintaphextwin	Vitalityavg 56.5¢	$6.3K	$5.6K	-$722.15	38% 386-620 (1006)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Natus Vincereavg 36¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$69.44	41% 77-109 (186)
DS dsasdaasCTR	Natus Vincereavg 35¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$65	63% 285-169 (454)
13 1337zzz1337	Vitalityavg 63.9¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$28.62	52% 211-197 (408)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Vitalityavg 58¢	$3.9K	$3.5K	-$474.98	51% 69-65 (134)
BA Babooou	Vitalityavg 64¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$25	52% 210-192 (402)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Natus Vincereavg 36.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$41.65	49% 18813-19212 (38025)
UN UnknownpoluyCTR	Natus Vincereavg 34.6¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$152.83	43% 93-121 (214)
JustADonkCTR	Natus Vincereavg 41.5¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$397.02	55% 883-722 (1605)
SU suleng66	Vitalityavg 68.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$33.64	64% 197-112 (309)
NO nobody2somebody	Vitalityavg 73.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$36.84	52% 623-583 (1206)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 62.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$106.95	58% 18484-13569 (32053)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 62.2¢	$991.16	$1.2K	+$211.56
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 36.5¢	$971.43	$652.93	-$318.51
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Natus Vincereavg 15.1¢	$3.2K	$1.2K	$-2.0K	52% 1210-1098 (2308)
DE delacsynzy1	Vitalityavg 49.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$11.28	52% 444-417 (861)
0X 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948	Vitalityavg 65¢	$968.82	$961.37	-$7.45	67% 422-204 (626)
RU Ruler11	Vitalityavg 54.9¢	$1.0K	$869.07	-$146.49	51% 291-279 (570)
Q7 q7662504	Vitalityavg 96¢	$846.22	$859.65	+$13.43	89% 371-48 (419)
SW swiftFoxx	Vitalityavg 49¢	$691.81	$720.04	+$28.24	70% 50-21 (71)

RN1

Vitality

Invested

$33,076.41

Value

$28.1K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

54%

56016-48150 (104166)

pnhct

Vitality

Invested

$26,417.03

Value

$27.0K

PnL

+$575.37

Record

54%

474-405 (879)

467j6yj

Vitality

Invested

$24,588.37

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$831.62

Record

97%

3248-113 (3361)

aaaa298

Vitality

Invested

$17,261.52

Value

$9.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

58%

760-540 (1300)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Vitality

Invested

$9,089.67

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$15.81

Record

52%

13642-12471 (26113)

cruzNBACTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,138.82

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

42%

396-554 (950)

iii252CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$12,092.56

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

57%

1112-856 (1968)

saintaphextwin

Vitality

Invested

$6,277.14

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$722.15

Record

38%

386-620 (1006)

fantasy7788CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$69.44

Record

41%

77-109 (186)

dsasdaasCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,549.94

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$65

Record

63%

285-169 (454)

1337zzz1337

Vitality

Invested

$4,218.47

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$28.62

Record

52%

211-197 (408)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Vitality

Invested

$3,935.51

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$474.98

Record

51%

69-65 (134)

Babooou

Vitality

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$25

Record

52%

210-192 (402)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,622.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$41.65

Record

49%

18813-19212 (38025)

UnknownpoluyCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$152.83

Record

43%

93-121 (214)

JustADonkCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,739.25

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$397.02

Record

55%

883-722 (1605)

suleng66

Vitality

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$33.64

Record

64%

197-112 (309)

nobody2somebody

Vitality

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$36.84

Record

52%

623-583 (1206)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$1,962.59

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$106.95

Record

58%

18484-13569 (32053)

Both legs:

Vitality$991.1662.2¢+$211.56

Natus Vincere$971.4336.5¢-$318.51

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,219.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

52%

1210-1098 (2308)

delacsynzy1

Vitality

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.28

Record

52%

444-417 (861)

0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948

Vitality

Invested

$968.82

Value

$961.37

PnL

-$7.45

Record

67%

422-204 (626)

Ruler11

Vitality

Invested

$1,015.56

Value

$869.07

PnL

-$146.49

Record

51%

291-279 (570)

q7662504

Vitality

Invested

$846.22

Value

$859.65

PnL

+$13.43

Record

89%

371-48 (419)

swiftFoxx

Vitality

Invested

$691.81

Value

$720.04

PnL

+$28.24

Record

70%

50-21 (71)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

20 of 40 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.