Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (50%) · Vitality at 72¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Vitality
4
Vitality 50%
$14.6K
$9.04
72.8¢ → 72¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | Vitalityavg 73¢ | $7.3K | $7.3K | -$49.99 | 57% 287-213 (500) |
 relativesignificance | Vitalityavg 72.5¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | -$1.08 | 58% 92-67 (159) |
VI vibing123CTR | Natus Vincereavg 27¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$60 | 52% 1549-1433 (2982) |
 KateBollingerCTR<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 27¢ | $5.61 | $5.71 | +$0.1 | 69% 1730-792 (2522) |
Invested
$7,300
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$49.99
Record
57%
287-213 (500)
relativesignificanceInvested
$3,938.11
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$1.08
Record
58%
92-67 (159)
Invested
$3,240
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$60
Record
52%
1549-1433 (2982)
KateBollingerCTR<$100Invested
$5.61
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$0.1
Record
69%
1730-792 (2522)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.