Games Total: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 70¢ · $586 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$585.61
$78.95
54¢ → 70¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 forsenxd | Underavg 54¢ | $252.2 | $324.69 | +$72.49 | 54% 1032-896 (1928) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 54¢ | $123.64 | $131.65 | +$8.01 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
 StudyPredictionCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $58.41 | $59.1 | +$0.7 | 54% 4511-3901 (8412) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.9¢ | $33.86 | $32.07 | -$1.79 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 53.5¢ | $22.43 | $20.53 | -$1.9 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $11.09 | $12.23 | +$1.14 | 60% 9116-6042 (15158) |
BA BAPEHUK<$100 | Underavg 54.3¢ | $5.03 | $5.32 | +$0.3 | 49% 397-413 (810) |
forsenxdInvested
$252.2
Value
$324.69
PnL
+$72.49
Record
54%
1032-896 (1928)
VeryLucky888Invested
$123.64
Value
$131.65
PnL
+$8.01
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100Invested
$58.41
Value
$59.1
PnL
+$0.7
Record
54%
4511-3901 (8412)
Invested
$33.86
Value
$32.07
PnL
-$1.79
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
RN1<$100Invested
$22.43
Value
$20.53
PnL
-$1.9
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$11.09
Value
$12.23
PnL
+$1.14
Record
60%
9116-6042 (15158)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$0.3
Record
49%
397-413 (810)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.