Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner

16 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (67%) · Vitality at 100¢ · $108K held · ends Oct 27

Vitality>99¢Natus Vincere<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 67%

Total Value

$107.9K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 99.7¢

+34% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Vitality100%

Natus Vincere0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality16 traders

Total Value$82.2K

Total Shares97,725

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Natus Vincere8 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares66,911

Combined PnL-$897.77

Vitality — 67%Natus Vincere — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PN pnhct	Vitalityavg 90.8¢	$15.4K	$15.5K	+$178.49	54% 442-380 (822)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Natus Vincereavg 42.4¢	$14.5K	$13.2K	$-1.3K	43% 71-95 (166)
forsenxd	Vitalityavg 58.1¢	$6.7K	$11.3K	+$4.6K	54% 1032-896 (1928)
RN1	Vitalityavg 86.2¢	$11.5K	$11.1K	-$349.05	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994	Vitalityavg 60.9¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$60.33	57% 639-490 (1129)
Q7 q7662504	Vitalityavg 97¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$49.43	88% 353-46 (399)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048	Vitalityavg 61.5¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$0.88	68% 234-108 (342)
13 1337zzz1337	Vitalityavg 82.7¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$70.04	52% 202-187 (389)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Natus Vincereavg 39.1¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$76.9	49% 18415-18835 (37250)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Vitalityavg 75.6¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$144.49	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
JU juice-fruit	Vitalityavg 64¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$166.05	60% 48-32 (80)
AA aaaa298	Vitalityavg 96.7¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$260.62	58% 731-523 (1254)
JO johnny234	Vitalityavg 63.1¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$98.18	44% 145-188 (333)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Natus Vincereavg 34.6¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$351.48	55% 126-102 (228)
VeryLucky888	Vitalityavg 64.9¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$755.4	58% 40420-29201 (69621)
HO Hongweiqian	Vitalityavg 63.6¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$73.56	47% 206-235 (441)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Natus Vincereavg 38.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$23.12	63% 1047-604 (1651)
cruzNBACTR	Natus Vincereavg 36¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$129.12	42% 391-541 (932)
Stone1337	Vitalityavg 88¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$368.44	57% 94-70 (164)
CH chillhouse123	Vitalityavg 67.8¢	$357.07	$310.73	+$20.01	52% 3667-3322 (6989)
poshposh	Vitalityavg 61.1¢	$172.27	$246.89	+$74.62	60% 9116-6042 (15158)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Natus Vincereavg 40¢	$109.44	$105.34	-$4.1	59% 2512-1739 (4251)
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100	Natus Vincereavg 34¢	$6.8	$7.7	+$0.9	46% 881-1048 (1929)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Natus Vincereavg 2.3¢	$3.86	$1.24	-$2.61	53% 6096-5326 (11422)

pnhct

Vitality

Invested

$15,354.11

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$178.49

Record

54%

442-380 (822)

fantasy7788CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$14,490

Value

$13.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

43%

71-95 (166)

forsenxd

Vitality

Invested

$6,748.08

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

54%

1032-896 (1928)

RN1

Vitality

Invested

$11,466.01

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$349.05

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994

Vitality

Invested

$6,581.61

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$60.33

Record

57%

639-490 (1129)

q7662504

Vitality

Invested

$5,048.67

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$49.43

Record

88%

353-46 (399)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

Vitality

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$0.88

Record

68%

234-108 (342)

1337zzz1337

Vitality

Invested

$4,902.54

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$70.04

Record

52%

202-187 (389)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,883.53

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$76.9

Record

49%

18415-18835 (37250)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Vitality

Invested

$4,128.93

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$144.49

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

juice-fruit

Vitality

Invested

$4,293.23

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$166.05

Record

60%

48-32 (80)

aaaa298

Vitality

Invested

$4,311.91

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$260.62

Record

58%

731-523 (1254)

johnny234

Vitality

Invested

$3,973.09

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$98.18

Record

44%

145-188 (333)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,139.07

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$351.48

Record

55%

126-102 (228)

VeryLucky888

Vitality

Invested

$1,529.35

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$755.4

Record

58%

40420-29201 (69621)

Hongweiqian

Vitality

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$73.56

Record

47%

206-235 (441)

lonmi2511CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,064.85

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$23.12

Record

63%

1047-604 (1651)

cruzNBACTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,898.16

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$129.12

Record

42%

391-541 (932)

Stone1337

Vitality

Invested

$1,950.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$368.44

Record

57%

94-70 (164)

chillhouse123

Vitality

Invested

$357.07

Value

$310.73

PnL

+$20.01

Record

52%

3667-3322 (6989)

poshposh

Vitality

Invested

$172.27

Value

$246.89

PnL

+$74.62

Record

60%

9116-6042 (15158)

Saber-greedCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$109.44

Value

$105.34

PnL

-$4.1

Record

59%

2512-1739 (4251)

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6.8

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

46%

881-1048 (1929)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3.86

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$2.61

Record

53%

6096-5326 (11422)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.