Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (67%) · Vitality at 70¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Vitality
6
Vitality 67%
$10.7K
$24.55
72¢ → 69.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR TrippleEX | Vitalityavg 72¢ | $7.2K | $7.2K | +$50 | 57% 280-207 (487) |
SU suleng66 | Vitalityavg 72.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$8.96 | 63% 187-110 (297) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | Natus Vincereavg 29¢ | $754.97 | $715.92 | -$39.05 | 55% 120-99 (219) |
 hasobidale | Vitalityavg 72¢ | $705.6 | $710.5 | +$4.9 | 67% 202-101 (303) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 28¢ | $19.07 | $18.73 | -$0.34 | 50% 5739-5834 (11573) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Vitalityavg 69¢ | $11.13 | $11.21 | +$0.08 | 53% 5465-4807 (10272) |
Invested
$7,199.96
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$50
Record
57%
280-207 (487)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$8.96
Record
63%
187-110 (297)
Invested
$754.97
Value
$715.92
PnL
-$39.05
Record
55%
120-99 (219)
hasobidaleInvested
$705.6
Value
$710.5
PnL
+$4.9
Record
67%
202-101 (303)
Invested
$19.07
Value
$18.73
PnL
-$0.34
Record
50%
5739-5834 (11573)
Invested
$11.13
Value
$11.21
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
5465-4807 (10272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.