Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (71%) · Vitality at 59¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Vitality59¢MOUZ41¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$120.7

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 58.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vitality59%

MOUZ42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,324

Combined PnL-$67.18

Vitality5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,786

Combined PnL-$53.52

MOUZ — 29%Vitality — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR	MOUZavg 42.8¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$67.77	— 4-10 (14)
VE Vetch	Vitalityavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$29.55	6% 3-51 (54)
BananaFarmer	Vitalityavg 56¢	$788.2	$703.75	-$84.45	— 9-9 (18)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	MOUZavg 43¢	$266.15	$263.05	-$3.1	46% 440-515 (955)
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 58¢	$132.9	$132.9	+$0
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 43¢	$133.25	$130.15	-$3.1
relativesignificance	Vitalityavg 58¢	$175.5	$177.01	+$1.51	56% 152-120 (272)
GH ghorrock<$100	Vitalityavg 57¢	$65.64	$66.68	+$1.04	53% 933-821 (1754)
SU suntori<$100	Vitalityavg 57¢	$9.52	$8.35	-$1.17	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	MOUZavg 42¢	$3.08	$3.67	+$0.59	37% 534-922 (1456)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$2,274.08

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$67.77

Record

—

4-10 (14)

Vetch

Vitality

Invested

$1,684.15

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$29.55

Record

3-51 (54)

BananaFarmer

Vitality

Invested

$788.2

Value

$703.75

PnL

-$84.45

Record

—

9-9 (18)

SnakeBallARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$266.15

Value

$263.05

PnL

-$3.1

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Both legs:

Invested

$175.5

Value

$177.01

PnL

+$1.51

Record

56%

152-120 (272)

ghorrock<$100

Vitality

Invested

$65.64

Value

$66.68

PnL

+$1.04

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

suntori<$100

Vitality

Invested

$9.52

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$1.17

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.59

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.