Games Total: O/U 2.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$2.6K
$533.27
46.4¢ → 100¢
+116% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YI yishiwucheng | Underavg 45.7¢ | $385.01 | $688 | +$302.99 | 51% 1813-1741 (3554) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $378.74 | $539.99 | +$161.25 | 58% 41850-30387 (72237) |
 RN1 | Underavg 42.6¢ | $386.94 | $404.61 | +$17.67 | 54% 56568-48734 (105302) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $344.63 | $351.97 | +$11 | 53% 4584-4000 (8584) |
0X 0xedrtgfBdecfrhyeerdCTR | Overavg 49.9¢ | $355 | $341.74 | -$13.26 | 34% 76-147 (223) |
 Reformedx | Underavg 50¢ | $160.24 | $166.65 | +$6.41 | 52% 823-773 (1596) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 43.4¢ | $42.91 | $90.14 | +$47.23 | 59% 10128-7124 (17252) |
Invested
$385.01
Value
$688
PnL
+$302.99
Record
51%
1813-1741 (3554)
VeryLucky888Invested
$378.74
Value
$539.99
PnL
+$161.25
Record
58%
41850-30387 (72237)
RN1Invested
$386.94
Value
$404.61
PnL
+$17.67
Record
54%
56568-48734 (105302)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$344.63
Value
$351.97
PnL
+$11
Record
53%
4584-4000 (8584)
Invested
$355
Value
$341.74
PnL
-$13.26
Record
34%
76-147 (223)
ReformedxInvested
$160.24
Value
$166.65
PnL
+$6.41
Record
52%
823-773 (1596)
poshposh<$100Invested
$42.91
Value
$90.14
PnL
+$47.23
Record
59%
10128-7124 (17252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.