Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (83%) · MOUZ at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
6
MOUZ 83%
$1.8K
-$43.23
81.5¢ → 100¢
+23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | MOUZavg 78.3¢ | $860.59 | $818.46 | -$42.13 | 54% 56568-48734 (105302) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR | Vitalityavg 30¢ | $333.01 | $338.56 | +$5.55 | 33% 6261-12980 (19241) |
YI yishiwucheng | MOUZavg 81.4¢ | $345.26 | $331.99 | -$13.27 | 51% 1813-1741 (3554) |
 noreasapa | MOUZavg 99.9¢ | $223.39 | $223.5 | +$0.11 | 91% 3580-335 (3915) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | MOUZavg 70¢ | $49.45 | $49.09 | -$0.35 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
 relativesignificance | MOUZavg 69¢ | $105.23 | $3.76 | +$6.86 | 57% 108-83 (191) |
RN1Invested
$860.59
Value
$818.46
PnL
-$42.13
Record
54%
56568-48734 (105302)
Invested
$333.01
Value
$338.56
PnL
+$5.55
Record
33%
6261-12980 (19241)
Invested
$345.26
Value
$331.99
PnL
-$13.27
Record
51%
1813-1741 (3554)
noreasapaInvested
$223.39
Value
$223.5
PnL
+$0.11
Record
91%
3580-335 (3915)
Invested
$49.45
Value
$49.09
PnL
-$0.35
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
relativesignificanceInvested
$105.23
Value
$3.76
PnL
+$6.86
Record
57%
108-83 (191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.