Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold MOUZ, while the market favors Vitality (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (80%) · MOUZ at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
MOUZ
5
MOUZ 80%
$2.6K
$14.1
46.5¢ → 48.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMOUZ at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Vitality 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Markram | Vitalityavg 55¢ | $782.5 | $746.94 | -$35.57 | 70% 2082-907 (2989) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | MOUZavg 46¢ | $673.58 | $673.58 | +$14.64 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
 ReformedxCTR | MOUZavg 48¢ | $481.99 | $487.01 | +$5.02 | 52% 823-773 (1596) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | MOUZavg 46¢ | $460 | $485 | +$25 | 47% 2500-2799 (5299) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | MOUZavg 46¢ | $229.99 | $229.99 | +$5 | 53% 5630-4969 (10599) |
Invested
$782.5
Value
$746.94
PnL
-$35.57
Record
70%
2082-907 (2989)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$673.58
Value
$673.58
PnL
+$14.64
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
ReformedxCTRInvested
$481.99
Value
$487.01
PnL
+$5.02
Record
52%
823-773 (1596)
Invested
$460
Value
$485
PnL
+$25
Record
47%
2500-2799 (5299)
Invested
$229.99
Value
$229.99
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5630-4969 (10599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.