Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (40%) · Vitality at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Vitality
5
Vitality 40%
$1.3K
$6.55
70.2¢ → 70.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVitality at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-27 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Vitality. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA Rayaya | Vitalityavg 70¢ | $933.34 | $940.01 | +$6.67 | — |
OM omnibus-076daa | Vitalityavg 71¢ | $219.34 | $216.25 | -$1.54 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
VI vibing123CTR | Team Falconsavg 29¢ | $99.42 | $101.14 | +$1.71 | 63% 1068-634 (1702) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Team Falconsavg 29¢ | $13.39 | $25.42 | -$0.39 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Team Falconsavg 29¢ | $5.87 | $5.97 | +$0.1 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
Invested
$933.34
Value
$940.01
PnL
+$6.67
Record
—
Invested
$219.34
Value
$216.25
PnL
-$1.54
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
Invested
$99.42
Value
$101.14
PnL
+$1.71
Record
63%
1068-634 (1702)
Invested
$13.39
Value
$25.42
PnL
-$0.39
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$5.97
PnL
+$0.1
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.