Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Butterfly (100%) · Butterfly at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Butterfly
5
Butterfly 100%
$4.6K
$526.01
72.8¢ → 100¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralButterfly at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Liquidifier | Butterflyavg 68.2¢ | $2.4K | $2.9K | +$582.62 | 10% 9-84 (93) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Butterflyavg 91.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$120.96 | 56% 3836-3005 (6841) |
38 38791873984189 | Butterflyavg 60.4¢ | $653.59 | $443.54 | +$60.14 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Butterflyavg 98¢ | $82.8 | $77.37 | -$5.43 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
PA Pan9X | Butterflyavg 57.5¢ | $125.23 | $16.96 | +$9.64 | 48% 654-703 (1357) |
Invested
$2,365.44
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$582.62
Record
10%
9-84 (93)
Invested
$1,192.04
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$120.96
Record
56%
3836-3005 (6841)
Invested
$653.59
Value
$443.54
PnL
+$60.14
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
Invested
$82.8
Value
$77.37
PnL
-$5.43
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$125.23
Value
$16.96
PnL
+$9.64
Record
48%
654-703 (1357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.