Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs Copenhagen Wolves - Map 1 Winner
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold UNiTY esports (67%) · UNiTY esports at 95¢ · $921 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
UNiTY esports
3
UNiTY esports 67%
$920.95
-$99.63
99.3¢ → 95¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUNiTY esports at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VP Vps1 | UNiTY esportsavg 99.9¢ | $928.84 | $883.28 | -$45.56 | 96% 261-12 (273) |
TE testBruno2<$100 | UNiTY esportsavg 85.1¢ | $31.73 | $37.61 | +$5.88 | 57% 808-598 (1406) |
 1am1bCTR<$100 | Copenhagen Wolvesavg 60¢ | $60 | $0.05 | -$59.95 | 56% 179-139 (318) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.