Counter-Strike: underw0rld vs Mira (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group A
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mira (25%) · Mira at 83¢ · $975 held · ended Nov 14
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Neutral
Mira
8
Mira 25%
$975.17
-$13.12
68.3¢ → 82.5¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMira at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on Mira. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarm | Miraavg 75.1¢ | $531.77 | $584.53 | +$52.76 | 59% 42-29 (71) |
NO NotJump | Miraavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $262.5 | +$0 | 53% 760-685 (1445) |
GA GaditimaCTR | underw0rldavg 24.3¢ | $104.59 | $75.34 | -$29.25 | 49% 257-270 (527) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | underw0rldavg 32.4¢ | $60.13 | $32.52 | -$27.6 | 37% 909-1532 (2441) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | underw0rldavg 22¢ | $11 | $8.75 | -$2.25 | 53% 6922-6099 (13021) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | underw0rldavg 38¢ | $9.88 | $4.55 | -$5.33 | 44% 749-938 (1687) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | underw0rldavg 21.2¢ | $4.88 | $4.02 | -$0.86 | 49% 1449-1486 (2935) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | underw0rldavg 21¢ | $3.55 | $2.96 | -$0.59 | 48% 1031-1119 (2150) |
Invested
$531.77
Value
$584.53
PnL
+$52.76
Record
59%
42-29 (71)
Invested
$262.5
Value
$262.5
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
760-685 (1445)
Invested
$104.59
Value
$75.34
PnL
-$29.25
Record
49%
257-270 (527)
Invested
$60.13
Value
$32.52
PnL
-$27.6
Record
37%
909-1532 (2441)
Invested
$11
Value
$8.75
PnL
-$2.25
Record
53%
6922-6099 (13021)
Invested
$9.88
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$5.33
Record
44%
749-938 (1687)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$4.02
PnL
-$0.86
Record
49%
1449-1486 (2935)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$2.96
PnL
-$0.59
Record
48%
1031-1119 (2150)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.