Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Iberian Soul, while the market favors TYLOO (100%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Iberian Soul - Map 2 Winner

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (33%) · Iberian Soul at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

TYLOO>99¢Iberian Soul<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 33%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidIberian Soul at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors TYLOO 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TYLOO100%

Iberian Soul0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TYLOO6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,286

Combined PnL+$702.51

Iberian Soul3 traders

Total Value$9.92

Total Shares19,840

Combined PnL$-6.8K

TYLOO — 67%Iberian Soul — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIberian Soul 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTYLOO 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Iberian Soul 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	TYLOOavg 59.3¢	$927.76	$939.29	+$11.52	53% 2337-2067 (4404)
SE seeeeeeb	TYLOOavg 45.9¢	$274.83	$598.7	+$323.87	51% 714-686 (1400)
PA pauleta23	TYLOOavg 46¢	$274.83	$597.15	+$322.32	67% 23216-11620 (34836)
AO aomendushen008	TYLOOavg 46.6¢	$235	$480.94	+$245.94	50% 934-918 (1852)
VP Vps1	TYLOOavg 99.9¢	$449.55	$449.78	+$0.23	96% 280-12 (292)
TE testBruno2	TYLOOavg 63.3¢	$2.9K	$219.35	-$201.37	58% 836-614 (1450)
WI wizzair71CTR	Iberian Soulavg 54.5¢	$8.4K	$7.7	$-8.4K	64% 42-24 (66)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	Iberian Soulavg 33.8¢	$1.4K	$2.1	+$1.7K	53% 100-87 (187)
0X 0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 36¢	$85.11	$0.12	-$84.99	57% 81-60 (141)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

TYLOO

Invested

$927.76

Value

$939.29

PnL

+$11.52

Record

53%

2337-2067 (4404)

seeeeeeb

TYLOO

Invested

$274.83

Value

$598.7

PnL

+$323.87

Record

51%

714-686 (1400)

pauleta23

TYLOO

Invested

$274.83

Value

$597.15

PnL

+$322.32

Record

67%

23216-11620 (34836)

aomendushen008

TYLOO

Invested

$235

Value

$480.94

PnL

+$245.94

Record

50%

934-918 (1852)

Vps1

TYLOO

Invested

$449.55

Value

$449.78

PnL

+$0.23

Record

96%

280-12 (292)

testBruno2

TYLOO

Invested

$2,872.29

Value

$219.35

PnL

-$201.37

Record

58%

836-614 (1450)

wizzair71CTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$8,394.68

Value

$7.7

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

64%

42-24 (66)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,422.33

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

100-87 (187)

0x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8CTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$85.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$84.99

Record

57%

81-60 (141)

Research grade

AvoidIberian Soul at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors TYLOO 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIberian Soul 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTYLOO 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Iberian Soul 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.