Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold TYLOO, while the market favors Iberian Soul (75%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Iberian Soul - Map 1 Winner

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold TYLOO (50%) · TYLOO at 25¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29

TYLOO25¢Iberian Soul75¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

TYLOO

Consensus Traders

TYLOO 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$82.29

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 25¢

-31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTYLOO at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TYLOO

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Iberian Soul 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TYLOO25%

Iberian Soul75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TYLOO3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,860

Combined PnL-$450.52

Iberian Soul3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,196

Combined PnL+$368.23

TYLOO — 50%Iberian Soul — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on TYLOO. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIberian Soul 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrTYLOO 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000TYLOO 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 51.4¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$13.72	53% 2332-2063 (4395)
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 51.4¢	$982.63	$1.4K	+$413.72
└ TYLOO leg	TYLOOavg 48.2¢	$971.87	$544.43	-$427.44
JohnLKellyJrCTR	TYLOOavg 36.4¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$417.24	52% 1214-1111 (2325)
daddyradar	Iberian Soulavg 65¢	$863.49	$970.41	+$106.92	65% 73-40 (113)
TE testBruno2	Iberian Soulavg 47.3¢	$482.28	$489.08	+$199.91	58% 834-611 (1445)
poshposhARB<$100	TYLOOavg 53.7¢	$248.55	$174.16	-$74.38	59% 9693-6689 (16382)
└ TYLOO leg	TYLOOavg 53.7¢	$189.23	$88.03	-$101.2
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 51.6¢	$59.32	$86.13	+$26.82
CC ccllar	Iberian Soulavg 41.8¢	$82.41	$143.81	+$61.4	46% 408-474 (882)
SH shiifooCTR	TYLOOavg 35.5¢	$149.18	$108.05	-$31.38	60% 3293-2211 (5504)
AR arbmonitorCTR<$100	TYLOOavg 33.7¢	$9.64	$7.73	-$1.91	44% 566-724 (1290)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,954.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$13.72

Record

53%

2332-2063 (4395)

Both legs:

Iberian Soul$982.6351.4¢+$413.72

TYLOO$971.8748.2¢-$427.44

JohnLKellyJrCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$1,613.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$417.24

Record

52%

1214-1111 (2325)

daddyradar

Iberian Soul

Invested

$863.49

Value

$970.41

PnL

+$106.92

Record

65%

73-40 (113)

testBruno2

Iberian Soul

Invested

$482.28

Value

$489.08

PnL

+$199.91

Record

58%

834-611 (1445)

poshposhARB<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$248.55

Value

$174.16

PnL

-$74.38

Record

59%

9693-6689 (16382)

Both legs:

TYLOO$189.2353.7¢-$101.2

Iberian Soul$59.3251.6¢+$26.82

ccllar

Iberian Soul

Invested

$82.41

Value

$143.81

PnL

+$61.4

Record

46%

408-474 (882)

shiifooCTR

TYLOO

Invested

$149.18

Value

$108.05

PnL

-$31.38

Record

60%

3293-2211 (5504)

arbmonitorCTR<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$9.64

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$1.91

Record

44%

566-724 (1290)

Research grade

AvoidTYLOO at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

TYLOO

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Iberian Soul 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on TYLOO. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIberian Soul 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrTYLOO 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000TYLOO 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TYLOO wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.