Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Iberian Soul, while the market favors TYLOO (63%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake Group C

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (60%) · Iberian Soul at 38¢ · $29K held · ends Oct 29

TYLOO63¢Iberian Soul37¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 37.5¢

-36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors TYLOO 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

TYLOO63%

Iberian Soul38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TYLOO4 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares26,778

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Iberian Soul6 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares29,805

Combined PnL+$483.98

TYLOO — 40%Iberian Soul — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIberian Soul 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIberian Soul 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Iberian Soul 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	TYLOOavg 40.2¢	$8.6K	$11.0K	+$2.3K	52% 1214-1111 (2325)
HU humbleboyCTR	Iberian Soulavg 59.4¢	$5.6K	$6.0K	+$373.2	54% 505-427 (932)
VI vibing123CTR	Iberian Soulavg 59¢	$5.3K	$5.9K	+$540	52% 1556-1439 (2995)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	TYLOOavg 39¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$384.61	50% 339-333 (672)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	Iberian Soulavg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$216.3	54% 100-85 (185)
dicekingCTR	Iberian Soulavg 55¢	$1.1K	$997.74	-$122.17	58% 319-235 (554)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	TYLOOavg 50.3¢	$803.48	$812.65	+$9.17	53% 2332-2063 (4395)
└ TYLOO leg	TYLOOavg 50.3¢	$406.05	$411.33	+$5.28
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 48.5¢	$397.44	$401.32	+$3.88
RA Rayaya	TYLOOavg 42¢	$564.31	$550.87	-$13.44	60% 1167-767 (1934)
LE legitgame	TYLOOavg 52.8¢	$400	$386.04	-$13.96	57% 243-187 (430)
poshposhCTR	Iberian Soulavg 51.8¢	$361.19	$270.64	-$90.54	59% 9693-6689 (16382)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 50¢	$10.05	$9.85	-$0.2	49% 18841-19244 (38085)

JohnLKellyJr

TYLOO

Invested

$8,629.35

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

52%

1214-1111 (2325)

humbleboyCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$5,607.61

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$373.2

Record

54%

505-427 (932)

vibing123CTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$5,339.99

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$540

Record

52%

1556-1439 (2995)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

TYLOO

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$384.61

Record

50%

339-333 (672)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,759.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$216.3

Record

54%

100-85 (185)

dicekingCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,119.91

Value

$997.74

PnL

-$122.17

Record

58%

319-235 (554)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

TYLOO

Invested

$803.48

Value

$812.65

PnL

+$9.17

Record

53%

2332-2063 (4395)

Both legs:

TYLOO$406.0550.3¢+$5.28

Iberian Soul$397.4448.5¢+$3.88

Rayaya

TYLOO

Invested

$564.31

Value

$550.87

PnL

-$13.44

Record

60%

1167-767 (1934)

legitgame

TYLOO

Invested

$400

Value

$386.04

PnL

-$13.96

Record

57%

243-187 (430)

poshposhCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$361.19

Value

$270.64

PnL

-$90.54

Record

59%

9693-6689 (16382)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$10.05

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

18841-19244 (38085)

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors TYLOO 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIberian Soul 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIberian Soul 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Iberian Soul 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.