Counter-Strike: tao toma vs BARCA - Map 1 Winner

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BARCA (80%) · BARCA at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

tao toma<1¢BARCA>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

BARCA

Consensus Traders

BARCA 80%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$431.75

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 100¢

+60% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

tao toma0%

BARCA100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BARCA8 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,918

Combined PnL+$440.67

tao toma2 traders

Total Value$318.92

Total Shares452

Combined PnL-$8.92

BARCA — 80%tao toma — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	BARCAavg 63.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$30.05	60% 158-104 (262)
CR crabfavor	BARCAavg 64.5¢	$478.39	$711.67	+$233.29	57% 95-71 (166)
31 319113331313111	BARCAavg 66¢	$2.3K	$550.17	-$115.52	57% 176-135 (311)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	BARCAavg 48¢	$240	$499.75	+$259.75	38% 544-884 (1428)
poshposh	BARCAavg 62.7¢	$297.36	$378.53	+$81.17	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
NO NotJumpCTR	tao tomaavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	52% 820-759 (1579)
AO aomendushen008	BARCAavg 77.9¢	$250.62	$193.46	-$49.88	3% 14-466 (480)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	tao tomaavg 31.5¢	$65.33	$56.42	-$8.92	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
LR lryyy<$100	BARCAavg 59.2¢	$52.14	$52.8	+$0.66	45% 805-991 (1796)
38 38791873984189<$100	BARCAavg 58.4¢	$40.79	$41.94	+$1.15	48% 3214-3513 (6727)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

BARCA

Invested

$1,308.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.05

Record

60%

158-104 (262)

crabfavor

BARCA

Invested

$478.39

Value

$711.67

PnL

+$233.29

Record

57%

95-71 (166)

319113331313111

BARCA

Invested

$2,299.34

Value

$550.17

PnL

-$115.52

Record

57%

176-135 (311)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

BARCA

Invested

$240

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$259.75

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

poshposh

BARCA

Invested

$297.36

Value

$378.53

PnL

+$81.17

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

NotJumpCTR

tao toma

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

aomendushen008

BARCA

Invested

$250.62

Value

$193.46

PnL

-$49.88

Record

14-466 (480)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

tao toma

Invested

$65.33

Value

$56.42

PnL

-$8.92

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

lryyy<$100

BARCA

Invested

$52.14

Value

$52.8

PnL

+$0.66

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

38791873984189<$100

BARCA

Invested

$40.79

Value

$41.94

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Research grade

NeutralBARCA at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

BARCA

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BARCA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.