Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy Black vs TTG Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold TTG Esports (80%) · TTG Esports at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Spirit Academy Black<1¢TTG Esports>99¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TTG Esports

Consensus Traders

TTG Esports 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$188.72

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 100¢

+125% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTTG Esports at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TTG Esports

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit Academy Black0%

TTG Esports100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TTG Esports4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,177

Combined PnL+$191.77

Spirit Academy Black1 trader

Total Value$18.4

Total Shares36

Combined PnL-$3.05

TTG Esports — 80%Spirit Academy Black — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on TTG Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTTG Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000TTG Esports 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Spirit Academy Blackavg 61.8¢	$1.1K	$847.84	-$95.22	46% 8032-9481 (17513)
└ Spirit Academy Black leg	Spirit Academy Blackavg 61.8¢	$598.64	$445.5	-$163.26
└ TTG Esports leg	TTG Esportsavg 41.2¢	$318.79	$402.34	+$68.04
diceking	TTG Esportsavg 33.7¢	$496.53	$765.44	+$77.55	58% 322-235 (557)
poshposh	TTG Esportsavg 63.4¢	$283.51	$391.52	+$108.01	59% 9968-6940 (16908)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	TTG Esportsavg 72.6¢	$245.11	$252.97	+$7.87	53% 2383-2087 (4470)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	TTG Esportsavg 40.6¢	$108.91	$161.41	+$52.5	38% 3225-5275 (8500)
└ TTG Esports leg	TTG Esportsavg 40.6¢	$100.01	$128.19	+$28.18
└ Spirit Academy Black leg	Spirit Academy Blackavg 12.9¢	$8.9	$33.23	+$24.32
HRTradingCTR<$100	Spirit Academy Blackavg 56.2¢	$21.45	$18.4	-$3.05	52% 4041-3673 (7714)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	TTG Esportsavg 57.1¢	$18.65	$16.99	-$1.66	49% 19022-19422 (38444)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Spirit Academy Black

Invested

$1,131.16

Value

$847.84

PnL

-$95.22

Record

46%

8032-9481 (17513)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy Black$598.6461.8¢-$163.26

TTG Esports$318.7941.2¢+$68.04

diceking

TTG Esports

Invested

$496.53

Value

$765.44

PnL

+$77.55

Record

58%

322-235 (557)

poshposh

TTG Esports

Invested

$283.51

Value

$391.52

PnL

+$108.01

Record

59%

9968-6940 (16908)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

TTG Esports

Invested

$245.11

Value

$252.97

PnL

+$7.87

Record

53%

2383-2087 (4470)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

TTG Esports

Invested

$108.91

Value

$161.41

PnL

+$52.5

Record

38%

3225-5275 (8500)

Both legs:

TTG Esports$100.0140.6¢+$28.18

Spirit Academy Black$8.912.9¢+$24.32

HRTradingCTR<$100

Spirit Academy Black

Invested

$21.45

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$3.05

Record

52%

4041-3673 (7714)

omnibus-076daa<$100

TTG Esports

Invested

$18.65

Value

$16.99

PnL

-$1.66

Record

49%

19022-19422 (38444)

Research grade

NeutralTTG Esports at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

TTG Esports

4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on TTG Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTTG Esports 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000TTG Esports 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TTG Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.