Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Phantom (83%) · Phantom at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Phantom
6
Phantom 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
-$48.56
69.4¢ → 100¢
+44% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralPhantom at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JohnLKellyJr | Phantomavg 55.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$136.25 | 52% 1243-1129 (2372) |
46 467j6yj | Phantomavg 98.3¢ | $980.96 | $968.18 | -$12.78 | 97% 3322-116 (3438) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Phantomavg 67.7¢ | $578.05 | $609.52 | +$31.46 | 53% 2408-2094 (4502) |
 poshposh | Phantomavg 92.6¢ | $316.18 | $340.77 | +$24.6 | 59% 10128-7124 (17252) |
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100 | Phantomavg 50.9¢ | $164.22 | $202.45 | +$38.22 | 52% 9155-8547 (17702) |
| └ Phantom leg | Phantomavg 50.9¢ | $115.11 | $146.76 | +$31.65 | |
| └ Spirit Academy leg | Spirit Academyavg 31¢ | $49.11 | $55.69 | +$6.58 | |
TE testBruno2 | Phantomavg 80.9¢ | $454.77 | $123.5 | +$46.21 | 58% 873-632 (1505) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 6.2¢ | $3.48 | $1.68 | -$1.8 | 49% 7902-8215 (16117) |
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$1,489.64
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$136.25
Record
52%
1243-1129 (2372)
Invested
$980.96
Value
$968.18
PnL
-$12.78
Record
97%
3322-116 (3438)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$578.05
Value
$609.52
PnL
+$31.46
Record
53%
2408-2094 (4502)
poshposhInvested
$316.18
Value
$340.77
PnL
+$24.6
Record
59%
10128-7124 (17252)
Invested
$164.22
Value
$202.45
PnL
+$38.22
Record
52%
9155-8547 (17702)
Both legs:
Invested
$454.77
Value
$123.5
PnL
+$46.21
Record
58%
873-632 (1505)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$1.8
Record
49%
7902-8215 (16117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.