Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit Academy, while the market favors Phantom (81%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Playoffs

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (50%) · Spirit Academy at 19¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Spirit Academy19¢Phantom81¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spirit Academy

Consensus Traders

Spirit Academy 50%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$91.68

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 19¢

-54% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpirit Academy at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Phantom 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit Academy19%

Phantom81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,943

Combined PnL-$126.03

Phantom4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,709

Combined PnL+$34.35

Spirit Academy — 50%Phantom — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0945A88cCf387E296785F071F725e4dc01dFb9bd-1772195461282CTR	Spirit Academyavg 42.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$130.74	48% 15-16 (31)
JohnLKellyJr	Phantomavg 58.4¢	$875.21	$906.54	+$31.32	52% 1243-1129 (2372)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Phantomavg 66.9¢	$156.91	$158.24	+$1.33	53% 2408-2094 (4502)
AS astapzippo<$100	Phantomavg 58¢	$23.2	$24.8	+$1.6	56% 2148-1702 (3850)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 15.3¢	$10.67	$13.64	+$2.96	49% 7902-8215 (16117)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 28¢	$11.55	$12.17	+$0.62	52% 9155-8547 (17702)
poshposhCTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 17¢	$9.58	$10.7	+$1.13	59% 10128-7124 (17252)
HRTrading<$100	Phantomavg 57¢	$1.14	$1.24	+$0.1	53% 4546-4095 (8641)

0x0945A88cCf387E296785F071F725e4dc01dFb9bd-1772195461282CTR

Spirit Academy

Invested

$1,185.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$130.74

Record

48%

15-16 (31)

JohnLKellyJr

Phantom

Invested

$875.21

Value

$906.54

PnL

+$31.32

Record

52%

1243-1129 (2372)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Phantom

Invested

$156.91

Value

$158.24

PnL

+$1.33

Record

53%

2408-2094 (4502)

astapzippo<$100

Phantom

Invested

$23.2

Value

$24.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

56%

2148-1702 (3850)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$10.67

Value

$13.64

PnL

+$2.96

Record

49%

7902-8215 (16117)

0x4f2CTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$11.55

Value

$12.17

PnL

+$0.62

Record

52%

9155-8547 (17702)

poshposhCTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$9.58

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$1.13

Record

59%

10128-7124 (17252)

HRTrading<$100

Phantom

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

4546-4095 (8641)

Research grade

AvoidSpirit Academy at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Phantom 81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.8%

19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$380.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

480.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.