Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy vs Falcons Force (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Group B

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (67%) · Spirit Academy at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Spirit Academy>99¢Falcons Force<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit Academy

Consensus Traders

Spirit Academy 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$54.35

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 100¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit Academy100%

Falcons Force0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,588

Combined PnL+$167.52

Falcons Force2 traders

Total Value$291.04

Total Shares1,909

Combined PnL-$221.87

Spirit Academy — 67%Falcons Force — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Spirit Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit Academy 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpirit Academy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons Force 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Spirit Academy 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
daddyradar	Spirit Academyavg 71¢	$743.05	$873.87	+$130.82	66% 83-43 (126)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Spirit Academyavg 74.4¢	$383.93	$405.19	+$21.26	53% 2376-2085 (4461)
0X 0x0945A88cCf387E296785F071F725e4dc01dFb9bd-1772195461282CTR	Falcons Forceavg 28¢	$386.48	$227.39	-$159.08	52% 11-10 (21)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Falcons Forceavg 31¢	$130.99	$134.98	+$3.98	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
└ Spirit Academy leg	Spirit Academyavg 67¢	$66.71	$70.69	+$3.98
└ Falcons Force leg	Falcons Forceavg 31¢	$90.58	$64.28	+$0
0X 0x4f2<$100	Spirit Academyavg 71¢	$75.98	$89.35	+$13.37	52% 9144-8538 (17682)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Falcons Forceavg 23.8¢	$126.44	$63.65	-$62.79	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
poshposh<$100	Spirit Academyavg 71¢	$26.71	$28.79	+$2.08	59% 9948-6921 (16869)

daddyradar

Spirit Academy

Invested

$743.05

Value

$873.87

PnL

+$130.82

Record

66%

83-43 (126)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Spirit Academy

Invested

$383.93

Value

$405.19

PnL

+$21.26

Record

53%

2376-2085 (4461)

0x0945A88cCf387E296785F071F725e4dc01dFb9bd-1772195461282CTR

Falcons Force

Invested

$386.48

Value

$227.39

PnL

-$159.08

Record

52%

11-10 (21)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Falcons Force

Invested

$130.99

Value

$134.98

PnL

+$3.98

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

Both legs:

Spirit Academy$66.7167¢+$3.98

Falcons Force$90.5831¢+$0

0x4f2<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$75.98

Value

$89.35

PnL

+$13.37

Record

52%

9144-8538 (17682)

topdogbigboiCTR

Falcons Force

Invested

$126.44

Value

$63.65

PnL

-$62.79

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

poshposh<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$26.71

Value

$28.79

PnL

+$2.08

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Spirit Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit Academy 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSpirit Academy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons Force 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Spirit Academy 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.