Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$1.1K
$58.08
53.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $667.27 | $606.87 | +$26.76 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 54¢ | $270 | $275 | +$5 | 53% 5500-4845 (10345) |
 StudyPrediction<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $77.26 | $79.02 | +$1.76 | 53% 4543-3958 (8501) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $19.49 | $40.68 | +$21.19 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
YI yishiwucheng<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $36.07 | $39.23 | +$3.16 | 41% 645-918 (1563) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $19.27 | $18.85 | -$0.42 | 93% 2978-234 (3212) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 53.2¢ | $14.82 | $15.46 | +$0.64 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$667.27
Value
$606.87
PnL
+$26.76
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$270
Value
$275
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5500-4845 (10345)
StudyPrediction<$100Invested
$77.26
Value
$79.02
PnL
+$1.76
Record
53%
4543-3958 (8501)
RN1<$100Invested
$19.49
Value
$40.68
PnL
+$21.19
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Invested
$36.07
Value
$39.23
PnL
+$3.16
Record
41%
645-918 (1563)
Invested
$19.27
Value
$18.85
PnL
-$0.42
Record
93%
2978-234 (3212)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$15.46
PnL
+$0.64
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.