Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit, while the market favors Natus Vincere (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (83%) · Spirit at 41¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Spirit41¢Natus Vincere59¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 83%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$29.99

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 40.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit41%

Natus Vincere60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,376

Combined PnL-$30.44

Natus Vincere1 trader

Total Value$5.85

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.45

Spirit — 83%Natus Vincere — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StudyPredictionCTR	Spiritavg 41¢	$819.99	$819.99	-$10	53% 4542-3955 (8497)
VeryLucky888CTR	Spiritavg 41¢	$758.5	$758.5	-$9.25	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Spiritavg 41¢	$423.17	$423.17	-$5.16	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Spiritavg 41.5¢	$110.33	$107.72	-$2.61	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
AC acorpCTR<$100	Spiritavg 42¢	$95.76	$93.48	-$3.42	49% 613-629 (1242)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740<$100	Natus Vincereavg 55¢	$5.5	$5.85	+$0.45	54% 311-264 (575)

StudyPredictionCTR

Spirit

Invested

$819.99

Value

$819.99

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

4542-3955 (8497)

VeryLucky888CTR

Spirit

Invested

$758.5

Value

$758.5

PnL

-$9.25

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Spirit

Invested

$423.17

Value

$423.17

PnL

-$5.16

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Spirit

Invested

$110.33

Value

$107.72

PnL

-$2.61

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

acorpCTR<$100

Spirit

Invested

$95.76

Value

$93.48

PnL

-$3.42

Record

49%

613-629 (1242)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.45

Record

54%

311-264 (575)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSpirit 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.