Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner

21 of 45 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (47%) · Spirit at 100¢ · $363K held · ends Oct 28

Spirit>99¢Natus Vincere<1¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$362.7K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 100¢

+58% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

21 of 45 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit100%

Natus Vincere0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit21 traders

Total Value$217.5K

Total Shares250,080

Combined PnL+$9.5K

Natus Vincere24 traders

Total Value$97.2K

Total Shares182,672

Combined PnL$-7.7K

Spirit — 47%Natus Vincere — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rock.San	Spiritavg 99.9¢	$62.8K	$62.9K	+$31.45	89% 11909-1414 (13323)
RN1	Spiritavg 48.7¢	$43.6K	$48.9K	+$5.3K	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
GA gaclfzARB<$100	Spiritavg 55.4¢	$43.5K	$38.5K	$-5.0K	73% 1248-469 (1717)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 55.4¢	$30.0K	$24.1K	$-5.9K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 52.1¢	$13.5K	$14.4K	+$872.07
PN pnhct	Spiritavg 49.7¢	$36.9K	$37.2K	+$327.06	54% 456-393 (849)
II iii252	Spiritavg 55.9¢	$40.0K	$35.0K	+$3.8K	56% 1098-847 (1945)
AA aaaa298CTR	Natus Vincereavg 56.4¢	$24.6K	$22.5K	$-2.2K	58% 750-533 (1283)
cruzNBACTR	Natus Vincereavg 54.3¢	$17.3K	$21.5K	+$4.2K	42% 394-545 (939)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	Natus Vincereavg 50.6¢	$9.2K	$10.1K	+$892.02	54% 2463-2117 (4580)
KA kahe	Spiritavg 62¢	$9.8K	$9.8K	+$78.75	68% 581-275 (856)
FK fkALARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 41.9¢	$8.5K	$9.5K	+$996.82	63% 1995-1180 (3175)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 41.9¢	$5.4K	$4.9K	-$434.07
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 42.1¢	$3.1K	$4.5K	+$1.4K
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994	Spiritavg 62¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$64	57% 646-493 (1139)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Natus Vincereavg 54.2¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$211.16	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Natus Vincereavg 58.4¢	$6.7K	$7.1K	+$363.55	58% 1851-1330 (3181)
RE redvinnyCTR	Natus Vincereavg 73.4¢	$12.2K	$6.5K	+$570.01	75% 1470-494 (1964)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Spiritavg 39.2¢	$6.9K	$6.3K	-$653.13	51% 64-61 (125)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Natus Vincereavg 39.9¢	$18.3K	$6.2K	$-12.1K	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
JohnLKellyJr	Spiritavg 64.4¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$506.76	53% 1203-1079 (2282)
UN UnknownpoluyCTR	Natus Vincereavg 37¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$364.86	44% 91-115 (206)
Tolkonevminus3CTR	Natus Vincereavg 53.9¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$294.08	59% 47-33 (80)
AD adururuCTR	Natus Vincereavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$74.08	53% 362-317 (679)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Natus Vincereavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$89.51	53% 335-300 (635)
ReformedxCTR	Natus Vincereavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$250	52% 791-734 (1525)
HO Hongweiqian	Spiritavg 21.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$106.8	47% 213-238 (451)
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR	Natus Vincereavg 35.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$93.6	45% 67-81 (148)
CA calm919CTR	Natus Vincereavg 62¢	$1.0K	$991.94	-$8.06	68% 252-119 (371)

Rock.San

Spirit

Invested

$62,832.9

Value

$62.9K

PnL

+$31.45

Record

89%

11909-1414 (13323)

RN1

Spirit

Invested

$43,559.64

Value

$48.9K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

gaclfzARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$43,531.17

Value

$38.5K

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

73%

1248-469 (1717)

Both legs:

Spirit$30,023.2455.4¢$-5.9K

Natus Vincere$13,507.9352.1¢+$872.07

pnhct

Spirit

Invested

$36,877.81

Value

$37.2K

PnL

+$327.06

Record

54%

456-393 (849)

iii252

Spirit

Invested

$40,019.58

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

56%

1098-847 (1945)

aaaa298CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$24,644.18

Value

$22.5K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

58%

750-533 (1283)

cruzNBACTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$17,265.39

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

42%

394-545 (939)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$9,187

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$892.02

Record

54%

2463-2117 (4580)

kahe

Spirit

Invested

$9,765

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$78.75

Record

68%

581-275 (856)

fkALARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$8,481.1

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$996.82

Record

63%

1995-1180 (3175)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$5,367.4141.9¢-$434.07

Spirit$3,113.742.1¢+$1.4K

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994

Spirit

Invested

$7,935.96

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$64

Record

57%

646-493 (1139)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,779.58

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$211.16

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,744.42

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$363.55

Record

58%

1851-1330 (3181)

redvinnyCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$12,214.79

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$570.01

Record

75%

1470-494 (1964)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Spirit

Invested

$6,917.9

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$653.13

Record

51%

64-61 (125)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$18,280.56

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-12.1K

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

JohnLKellyJr

Spirit

Invested

$4,039.42

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$506.76

Record

53%

1203-1079 (2282)

UnknownpoluyCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$364.86

Record

44%

91-115 (206)

Tolkonevminus3CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,957.93

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$294.08

Record

59%

47-33 (80)

adururuCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,363.21

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$74.08

Record

53%

362-317 (679)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,347.37

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$89.51

Record

53%

335-300 (635)

ReformedxCTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,039.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$250

Record

52%

791-734 (1525)

Hongweiqian

Spirit

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$106.8

Record

47%

213-238 (451)

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,110

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$93.6

Record

45%

67-81 (148)

calm919CTR

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,000

Value

$991.94

PnL

-$8.06

Record

68%

252-119 (371)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

21 of 45 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.