Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Natus Vincere — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Natus Vincere
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
Resolved Natus Vincere. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Natus Vincere. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Natus Vincere 63%
6 arb excluded
$147.3K
$-5.9K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 35 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 64.2¢ | $36.9K | $36.2K | -$689.77 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 31.1¢ | $13.6K | — | $-13.6K | |
| └ Natus Vincere leg | Natus Vincereavg 64.2¢ | $23.2K | $36.2K | +$13.0K | |
PN pnhctARB<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 68.5¢ | $29.6K | $29.4K | -$225.56 | 54% 456-393 (849) |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 32¢ | $9.5K | — | $-9.5K | |
| └ Natus Vincere leg | Natus Vincereavg 68.5¢ | $20.1K | $29.4K | +$9.3K | |
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR | Spiritavg 45¢ | $13.3K | — | $-13.3K | 41% 280-410 (690) |
II iii252ARB<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 61.9¢ | $17.1K | $9.9K | +$5.1K | 56% 1098-847 (1945) |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 33.9¢ | $3.3K | — | $-3.3K | |
| └ Natus Vincere leg | Natus Vincereavg 61.9¢ | $6.1K | $9.9K | +$8.4K | |
FA fantasy7788CTR | Spiritavg 62¢ | $9.0K | — | $-11.0K | 43% 74-100 (174) |
 cruzNBA | Natus Vincereavg 58.5¢ | $11.3K | $19.3K | +$8.0K | 42% 394-545 (939) |
LO lonmi2511 | Natus Vincereavg 38.1¢ | $6.1K | $16.0K | +$9.9K | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR | Spiritavg 60¢ | $4.7K | — | $-4.7K | 51% 64-61 (125) |
DE depresssin | Natus Vincereavg 99.9¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$4.84 | 85% 1258-225 (1483) |
FK fkALCTR | Spiritavg 45¢ | $2.3K | — | $-2.3K | 63% 1995-1180 (3175) |
UN Unknownpoluy | Natus Vincereavg 43.7¢ | $3.4K | $7.8K | +$4.4K | 44% 91-115 (206) |
LU luckycat888888CTR | Spiritavg 49¢ | $2.0K | — | $-2.0K | 47% 25-28 (53) |
FA facaigegeARB<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 72¢ | $2.6K | $2.2K | -$412.23 | 48% 383-413 (796) |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 49¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | |
| └ Natus Vincere leg | Natus Vincereavg 72¢ | $1.6K | $2.2K | +$622.16 | |
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048 | Natus Vincereavg 88.5¢ | $5.0K | $5.7K | +$650.09 | 68% 241-112 (353) |
RU Ruler11CTR | Spiritavg 49¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 51% 282-272 (554) |
CL CLj0711CTR | Spiritavg 35.3¢ | $918 | — | -$918 | 44% 286-369 (655) |
UN UNIVERSEMVPCTR | Spiritavg 51.1¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 69% 62-28 (90) |
 forsenxd | Natus Vincereavg 89¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$322.31 | 53% 1041-906 (1947) |
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100 | Natus Vincereavg 54.7¢ | $1.3K | $2.1K | +$764.35 | 58% 18402-13504 (31906) |
| └ Natus Vincere leg | Natus Vincereavg 54.7¢ | $1.1K | $2.1K | +$942.85 | |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 51¢ | $178.5 | — | -$178.5 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Spiritavg 56.7¢ | $1.6K | — | -$793.61 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
FR frohp5 | Natus Vincereavg 53¢ | $1.0K | $1.9K | +$886.79 | 65% 1962-1047 (3009) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Spiritavg 59.1¢ | $640.63 | — | -$640.63 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
RE redvinny | Natus Vincereavg 75.6¢ | $13.0K | $1.8K | +$1.2K | 75% 1470-494 (1964) |
DE delacsynzy1 | Natus Vincereavg 55.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.8K | +$807.45 | 51% 437-415 (852) |
 iceblue- | Natus Vincereavg 50¢ | $710 | $1.4K | +$710 | 43% 796-1063 (1859) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$36,856.04
Value
$36.2K
PnL
-$689.77
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Both legs:
Invested
$29,632.05
Value
$29.4K
PnL
-$225.56
Record
54%
456-393 (849)
Both legs:
Invested
$13,310.09
Value
—
PnL
$-13.3K
Record
41%
280-410 (690)
Invested
$17,073.45
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$5.1K
Record
56%
1098-847 (1945)
Both legs:
Invested
$9,000
Value
—
PnL
$-11.0K
Record
43%
74-100 (174)
cruzNBAInvested
$11,324.64
Value
$19.3K
PnL
+$8.0K
Record
42%
394-545 (939)
Invested
$6,091.17
Value
$16.0K
PnL
+$9.9K
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
Invested
$4,741.5
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
51%
64-61 (125)
Invested
$4,834.64
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$4.84
Record
85%
1258-225 (1483)
Invested
$2,325.81
Value
—
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
63%
1995-1180 (3175)
Invested
$3,411
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$4.4K
Record
44%
91-115 (206)
Invested
$1,959.97
Value
—
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
47%
25-28 (53)
Invested
$2,634.22
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$412.23
Record
48%
383-413 (796)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$650.09
Record
68%
241-112 (353)
Invested
$1,437.68
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
51%
282-272 (554)
Invested
$918
Value
—
PnL
-$918
Record
44%
286-369 (655)
Invested
$1,279.07
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
69%
62-28 (90)
forsenxdInvested
$2,607.75
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$322.31
Record
53%
1041-906 (1947)
Invested
$1,316.65
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$764.35
Record
58%
18402-13504 (31906)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,635.49
Value
—
PnL
-$793.61
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$886.79
Record
65%
1962-1047 (3009)
Invested
$640.63
Value
—
PnL
-$640.63
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$12,994.65
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
75%
1470-494 (1964)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$807.45
Record
51%
437-415 (852)
iceblue-Invested
$710
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$710
Record
43%
796-1063 (1859)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pnhct
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239
CTRSpirit — $0
iii252
ARBArbitrage — excluded
fantasy7788
CTRSpirit — $0
cruzNBA
Natus Vincere — $19.3K
lonmi2511
Natus Vincere — $16.0K
AnibalAugustoSardinha
CTRSpirit — $0
depresssin
Natus Vincere — $4.8K
fkAL
CTRSpirit — $0