Games Total: O/U 2.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 52¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$27.08

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares14,023

Combined PnL+$27.46

Over1 trader

Total Value$18.62

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$0.38

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.3¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$55.4	53% 1298-1131 (2429)
forsenxd	Underavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$32.29	49% 372-395 (767)
YI yishiwucheng	Underavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$41.6	58% 82-60 (142)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$817.12	$717.15	+$9.83	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$483.8	$513.14	+$29.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$219.04	$204.01	-$19.51
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 50¢	$400	$408	+$8	25% 331-1013 (1344)
BI biying99999<$100	Underavg 50¢	$54.36	$54.9	+$0.54	34% 99-192 (291)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$19	$18.62	-$0.38	52% 557-514 (1071)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 48¢	$14.26	$14.55	+$0.3	41% 671-981 (1652)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 47¢	$12.1	$12.23	+$0.13	51% 2485-2431 (4916)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$3,547.82

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$55.4

Record

53%

1298-1131 (2429)

forsenxd

Under

Invested

$1,614.59

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$32.29

Record

49%

372-395 (767)

yishiwucheng

Under

Invested

$1,390.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$41.6

Record

58%

82-60 (142)

suntoriARB<$100

Over

Invested

$817.12

Value

$717.15

PnL

+$9.83

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

Both legs:

Over$483.849.5¢+$29.34

Under$219.0451¢-$19.51

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$408

PnL

+$8

Record

25%

331-1013 (1344)

biying99999<$100

Under

Invested

$54.36

Value

$54.9

PnL

+$0.54

Record

34%

99-192 (291)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19

Value

$18.62

PnL

-$0.38

Record

52%

557-514 (1071)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$14.26

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

671-981 (1652)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$12.1

Value

$12.23

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

2485-2431 (4916)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.