Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Spirit, while the market favors MOUZ (54%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (50%) · Spirit at 47¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
8
Spirit 50%
$10.4K
$88.78
45.8¢ → 46.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a | MOUZavg 53¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$3.41 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
JO JohnnyWinsCTR | Spiritavg 45.7¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$50.81 | 4% 3-70 (73) |
NA NagastaBagambiCTR | Spiritavg 46¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$16.77 | 5% 1-19 (20) |
JU JuiceFarm | MOUZavg 53¢ | $675.11 | $681.48 | +$6.37 | 58% 33-24 (57) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Spiritavg 46¢ | $430.86 | $430.86 | +$0 | 55% 154-128 (282) |
WE weeeskiesCTR | Spiritavg 44¢ | $253 | $264.5 | +$11.5 | 44% 11-14 (25) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | MOUZavg 53¢ | $7.95 | $7.95 | +$0 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | MOUZavg 54¢ | $4.54 | $4.46 | -$0.08 | 47% 226-251 (477) |
Invested
$4,326.94
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$3.41
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$3,069.25
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$50.81
Record
4%
3-70 (73)
Invested
$1,543.27
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.77
Record
5%
1-19 (20)
Invested
$675.11
Value
$681.48
PnL
+$6.37
Record
58%
33-24 (57)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$430.86
Value
$430.86
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
154-128 (282)
Invested
$253
Value
$264.5
PnL
+$11.5
Record
44%
11-14 (25)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$4.54
Value
$4.46
PnL
-$0.08
Record
47%
226-251 (477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.