Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 73¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
$785.28
50.2¢ → 73¢
+45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 47.8¢ | $2.3K | $3.2K | +$905.35 | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50¢ | $532.45 | $777.38 | +$244.93 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
BA BAPEHUK | Underavg 60¢ | $1.0K | $235 | -$365 | 49% 397-411 (808) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Overavg 97.8¢ | $220.2 | $150 | -$70.2 | 60% 9092-6016 (15108) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $73.5 | $109.5 | +$36 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 97.8¢ | $146.7 | $40.5 | -$106.2 |
RN1Invested
$2,297.31
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$905.35
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
VeryLucky888Invested
$532.45
Value
$777.38
PnL
+$244.93
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$235
PnL
-$365
Record
49%
397-411 (808)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$220.2
Value
$150
PnL
-$70.2
Record
60%
9092-6016 (15108)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.