Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Spirit, while the market favors MOUZ (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (83%) · Spirit at 0.1¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Spirit
6
Spirit 83%
1 arb excluded
$7.7K
$-1.8K
39.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpirit at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | MOUZavg 52.3¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$591.37 | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
| └ MOUZ leg | MOUZavg 52.3¢ | $2.8K | $2.1K | $-1.3K | |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 9.5¢ | $134.22 | $863.56 | +$729.35 | |
HO HongweiqianCTR | Spiritavg 44.5¢ | $1.5K | $2.1K | -$707.05 | 47% 204-234 (438) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Spiritavg 29.7¢ | $491.41 | $1.0K | -$94.36 | 59% 86-61 (147) |
IV Ivan948CTR | Spiritavg 44.4¢ | $623.71 | $857.83 | -$293.23 | 45% 47-57 (104) |
 StudyPrediction | MOUZavg 69¢ | $1.4K | $779.99 | -$690 | 54% 4510-3900 (8410) |
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100 | Spiritavg 50¢ | $28 | $34.16 | +$5.88 | 50% 617-629 (1246) |
AS astapzippoCTR | Spiritavg 29¢ | $313.86 | $0.25 | -$69.13 | 56% 2106-1641 (3747) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,918.08
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$591.37
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,500
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$707.05
Record
47%
204-234 (438)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$491.41
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$94.36
Record
59%
86-61 (147)
Invested
$623.71
Value
$857.83
PnL
-$293.23
Record
45%
47-57 (104)
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,379.99
Value
$779.99
PnL
-$690
Record
54%
4510-3900 (8410)
Invested
$28
Value
$34.16
PnL
+$5.88
Record
50%
617-629 (1246)
Invested
$313.86
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$69.13
Record
56%
2106-1641 (3747)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.