Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Spirit — but MOUZ won instead.
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Resolved MOUZ. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Spirit. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
36
Spirit 44%
5 arb excluded
$226.1K
$-42.3K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 36 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | MOUZavg 47.4¢ | $35.9K | $40.0K | +$4.1K | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
| └ MOUZ leg | MOUZavg 47.4¢ | $19.0K | $40.0K | +$21.0K | |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 42.4¢ | $16.9K | — | $-16.9K | |
 yabanciCTR | Spiritavg 48.2¢ | $52.6K | — | $-52.6K | 57% 39-29 (68) |
AA aaaa298 | MOUZavg 68.5¢ | $31.9K | $38.6K | +$6.8K | 58% 727-522 (1249) |
PN pnhctARB<$100 | MOUZavg 63.2¢ | $23.2K | $22.9K | -$295.13 | 54% 440-376 (816) |
| └ MOUZ leg | MOUZavg 63.2¢ | $14.5K | $22.9K | +$8.4K | |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 36.5¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.7K | |
 CORGII | MOUZavg 39¢ | $10.5K | $31.3K | +$20.8K | 41% 381-551 (932) |
SU suleng66 | MOUZavg 92.3¢ | $24.0K | $21.7K | $-1.9K | 63% 190-111 (301) |
TH THEHIGHLIFE | MOUZavg 52¢ | $10.4K | $20.0K | +$9.6K | 54% 2458-2112 (4570) |
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaARB<$100 | MOUZavg 39¢ | $5.2K | $11.1K | +$6.3K | 53% 61-55 (116) |
| └ MOUZ leg | MOUZavg 39¢ | $4.3K | $11.1K | +$7.2K | |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 8¢ | $888.88 | — | -$888.88 | |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | MOUZavg 64.5¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$38.33 | 52% 13483-12339 (25822) |
| └ MOUZ leg | MOUZavg 64.5¢ | $4.5K | $6.9K | +$2.5K | |
| └ Spirit leg | Spiritavg 36.1¢ | $2.4K | — | $-2.4K | |
 cruzNBACTR | Spiritavg 47.5¢ | $9.1K | — | $-9.1K | 42% 391-539 (930) |
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994 | MOUZavg 38.2¢ | $2.6K | $7.5K | +$4.9K | 57% 638-489 (1127) |
UN Unknownpoluy | MOUZavg 39.8¢ | $1.7K | $5.0K | +$3.3K | 43% 84-110 (194) |
Q7 q7662504 | MOUZavg 94.6¢ | $3.9K | $4.2K | +$226.39 | 88% 351-46 (397) |
RE redvinnyCTR | Spiritavg 78¢ | $7.4K | — | $-8.0K | 75% 1458-490 (1948) |
13 1337zzz1337CTR | Spiritavg 61¢ | $5.5K | — | $-5.8K | 52% 202-186 (388) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | MOUZavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $2.9K | +$1.4K | 53% 300-264 (564) |
AD adururu | MOUZavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $2.9K | +$1.4K | 54% 349-298 (647) |
KA kaheCTR | Spiritavg 61¢ | $4.3K | — | $-4.5K | 68% 578-273 (851) |
A8 a8999 | MOUZavg 38¢ | $953.42 | $2.5K | +$439.08 | 44% 1067-1356 (2423) |
CL CLj0711 | MOUZavg 30.5¢ | $609.99 | $2.0K | +$1.4K | 43% 283-369 (652) |
DE delacsynzy1 | MOUZavg 52¢ | $1,000 | $1.9K | +$1.0K | 51% 425-411 (836) |
IV Ivan948CTR | Spiritavg 61¢ | $5.0K | — | $-3.0K | 45% 47-57 (104) |
 forsenxdCTR | Spiritavg 60¢ | $2.4K | — | $-2.7K | 54% 1031-895 (1926) |
 MaktMan | MOUZavg 42¢ | $630 | $1.5K | +$922.5 | 53% 35-31 (66) |
 ReformedxCTR | Spiritavg 61¢ | $1.8K | — | $-2.0K | 52% 769-716 (1485) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$35,914.24
Value
$40.0K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
Both legs:
yabanciCTRInvested
$52,634.12
Value
—
PnL
$-52.6K
Record
57%
39-29 (68)
Invested
$31,862.52
Value
$38.6K
PnL
+$6.8K
Record
58%
727-522 (1249)
Invested
$23,236.25
Value
$22.9K
PnL
-$295.13
Record
54%
440-376 (816)
Both legs:
CORGIIInvested
$10,488.87
Value
$31.3K
PnL
+$20.8K
Record
41%
381-551 (932)
Invested
$24,000
Value
$21.7K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
63%
190-111 (301)
Invested
$10,401
Value
$20.0K
PnL
+$9.6K
Record
54%
2458-2112 (4570)
Invested
$5,222.16
Value
$11.1K
PnL
+$6.3K
Record
53%
61-55 (116)
Both legs:
Invested
$6,902.97
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$38.33
Record
52%
13483-12339 (25822)
Both legs:
cruzNBACTRInvested
$9,119.38
Value
—
PnL
$-9.1K
Record
42%
391-539 (930)
Invested
$2,555.64
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$4.9K
Record
57%
638-489 (1127)
Invested
$1,748.74
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
43%
84-110 (194)
Invested
$3,948.71
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$226.39
Record
88%
351-46 (397)
Invested
$7,438.49
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
75%
1458-490 (1948)
Invested
$5,500
Value
—
PnL
$-5.8K
Record
52%
202-186 (388)
Invested
$1,530.71
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
53%
300-264 (564)
Invested
$1,530.71
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
54%
349-298 (647)
Invested
$4,269.98
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
68%
578-273 (851)
Invested
$953.42
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$439.08
Record
44%
1067-1356 (2423)
Invested
$609.99
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
43%
283-369 (652)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
51%
425-411 (836)
Invested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
45%
47-57 (104)
forsenxdCTRInvested
$2,443.12
Value
—
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
54%
1031-895 (1926)
MaktManInvested
$630
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$922.5
Record
53%
35-31 (66)
ReformedxCTRInvested
$1,830
Value
—
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
52%
769-716 (1485)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
yabanci
CTRSpirit — $0
aaaa298
MOUZ — $38.6K
pnhct
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CORGII
MOUZ — $31.3K
suleng66
MOUZ — $21.7K
THEHIGHLIFE
MOUZ — $20.0K
AnibalAugustoSardinha
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
cruzNBA
CTRSpirit — $0