Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (67%) · Spirit at 100¢ · $87K held · ends Oct 27

Spirit>99¢MOUZ<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$86.9K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

8 of 12 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit100%

MOUZ0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit8 traders

Total Value$35.5K

Total Shares38,702

Combined PnL-$402.7

MOUZ4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares12,207

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Spirit — 67%MOUZ — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LhordGryffin	Spiritavg 99.9¢	$31.3K	$31.3K	+$15.65	99% 1107-12 (1119)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Spiritavg 81.2¢	$17.1K	$17.9K	+$774.78	54% 435-376 (811)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 15.2¢	$2.7K	$9.0K	+$6.2K
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 81.2¢	$14.4K	$8.9K	$-5.4K
RN1ARB<$100	Spiritavg 71.3¢	$14.5K	$14.5K	-$4.42	54% 55318-47360 (102678)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 71.3¢	$10.7K	$7.6K	$-3.1K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 27.1¢	$3.8K	$6.9K	+$3.1K
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	Spiritavg 81.3¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	+$1.5K	58% 724-521 (1245)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 81.3¢	$8.0K	$5.0K	$-2.7K
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 4.6¢	$453.13	$4.9K	+$4.3K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Spiritavg 75.8¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$17.63	52% 13478-12328 (25806)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 75.8¢	$2.9K	$1.9K	-$969.94
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 23.4¢	$853.67	$1.8K	+$952.31
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	MOUZavg 18.9¢	$1.3K	$3.4K	+$2.1K	52% 60-55 (115)
DE delacsynzy1	Spiritavg 59.5¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$303.75	51% 424-410 (834)
ReformedxCTR	MOUZavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$39.44	52% 769-714 (1483)
AS astapzippo	Spiritavg 96.3¢	$963.48	$999.5	+$36.02	56% 2103-1639 (3742)
LU luckycat888888	Spiritavg 50¢	$736.85	$744.21	+$7.37	49% 19-20 (39)
latvian.demonCTR	MOUZavg 43¢	$516	$594	+$78	54% 615-526 (1141)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994	Spiritavg 51¢	$315.26	$312.17	-$3.09	57% 637-489 (1126)
poshposh	Spiritavg 60.9¢	$332.55	$275.65	-$56.9	60% 9086-6001 (15087)
GR Grool	Spiritavg 71¢	$213	$151.5	-$61.5	54% 1584-1366 (2950)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	Spiritavg 52¢	$128.47	$138.62	+$10.15	52% 3662-3321 (6983)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 41¢	$58.57	$70.71	+$12.14
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 52¢	$69.9	$67.91	-$1.99
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Spiritavg 87¢	$87	$50.5	-$36.5	51% 1198-1131 (2329)
GT gt7238CTR	MOUZavg 39.6¢	$619.25	$0.78	-$618.47	45% 580-706 (1286)

LhordGryffin

Spirit

Invested

$31,274.57

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$15.65

Record

99%

1107-12 (1119)

pnhctARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$17,124.56

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$774.78

Record

54%

435-376 (811)

Both legs:

MOUZ$2,744.6515.2¢+$6.2K

Spirit$14,379.9181.2¢$-5.4K

RN1ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$14,496.16

Value

$14.5K

PnL

-$4.42

Record

54%

55318-47360 (102678)

Both legs:

Spirit$10,723.4771.3¢$-3.1K

MOUZ$3,772.6927.1¢+$3.1K

aaaa298ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$9,984.12

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

58%

724-521 (1245)

Both legs:

Spirit$8,025.0381.3¢$-2.7K

MOUZ$453.134.6¢+$4.3K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$3,756.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$17.63

Record

52%

13478-12328 (25806)

Both legs:

Spirit$2,903.375.8¢-$969.94

MOUZ$853.6723.4¢+$952.31

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,289.21

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

52%

60-55 (115)

delacsynzy1

Spirit

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$303.75

Record

51%

424-410 (834)

ReformedxCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,262.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$39.44

Record

52%

769-714 (1483)

astapzippo

Spirit

Invested

$963.48

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$36.02

Record

56%

2103-1639 (3742)

luckycat888888

Spirit

Invested

$736.85

Value

$744.21

PnL

+$7.37

Record

49%

19-20 (39)

latvian.demonCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$516

Value

$594

PnL

+$78

Record

54%

615-526 (1141)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994

Spirit

Invested

$315.26

Value

$312.17

PnL

-$3.09

Record

57%

637-489 (1126)

poshposh

Spirit

Invested

$332.55

Value

$275.65

PnL

-$56.9

Record

60%

9086-6001 (15087)

Grool

Spirit

Invested

$213

Value

$151.5

PnL

-$61.5

Record

54%

1584-1366 (2950)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$128.47

Value

$138.62

PnL

+$10.15

Record

52%

3662-3321 (6983)

Both legs:

MOUZ$58.5741¢+$12.14

Spirit$69.952¢-$1.99

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Spirit

Invested

$87

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$36.5

Record

51%

1198-1131 (2329)

gt7238CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$619.25

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$618.47

Record

45%

580-706 (1286)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

8 of 12 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.