Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (60%) · G2 at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
G2
5
G2 60%
$7.5K
$31.78
54.9¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralG2 at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stickman22 | G2avg 55¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$22.5 | — 4-3 (7) |
RA randomrandomrandomCTR | Spiritavg 45¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$25.77 | — 4-1 (5) |
VI vibing123 | G2avg 54.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$26.37 | 63% 1097-652 (1749) |
JU JuiceFarm | G2avg 55¢ | $770 | $777 | +$7 | 64% 16-9 (25) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | Spiritavg 44¢ | $148.74 | $150.43 | +$1.69 | 56% 382-300 (682) |
Stickman22Invested
$2,475
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$22.5
Record
—
4-3 (7)
Invested
$2,319.59
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$25.77
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$1,779.3
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$26.37
Record
63%
1097-652 (1749)
Invested
$770
Value
$777
PnL
+$7
Record
64%
16-9 (25)
Invested
$148.74
Value
$150.43
PnL
+$1.69
Record
56%
382-300 (682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.