Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner

18 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (78%) · Spirit at 69¢ · $112K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit69¢G231¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$111.8K

Combined PnL

$406.95

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 68.5¢

+0% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

18 of 23 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit69%

G232%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G25 traders

Total Value$40.0K

Total Shares126,983

Combined PnL-$483.71

Spirit18 traders

Total Value$69.4K

Total Shares98,701

Combined PnL+$890.66

G2 — 22%Spirit — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788CTR	G2avg 32¢	$30.0K	$29.5K	-$503.09	42% 107-147 (254)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Spiritavg 68¢	$24.1K	$24.9K	+$705.04	56% 385-301 (686)
LO lonmi2511	Spiritavg 68¢	$17.9K	$18.0K	+$139.36	60% 667-444 (1111)
SU SuperMegaManCTR	G2avg 31.6¢	$6.9K	$6.8K	-$21.45	49% 609-633 (1242)
13 1337zzz1337	Spiritavg 69¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$36.23	— 7-0 (7)
BA Babooou	Spiritavg 68¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$120	— 5-3 (8)
RA Rayaya	Spiritavg 70¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$75	— 7-5 (12)
RNGUziCTR	G2avg 31¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$50	2% 4-158 (162)
RR rrooster	Spiritavg 69¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$40	40% 26-39 (65)
WE weeeskies	Spiritavg 70¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$0	— 4-7 (11)
AS asuka7	Spiritavg 69¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$15.24	5% 15-316 (331)
SU suleng66	Spiritavg 70¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$42.86	11% 6-51 (57)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Spiritavg 68.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$35.96	56% 3894-3059 (6953)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 68.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$31.15
└ G2 leg	G2avg 29.7¢	$449.52	$454.33	+$4.82
YI yishiwucheng	Spiritavg 68¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$48.92	56% 47-37 (84)
0X 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948	Spiritavg 70¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$27.16	— 11-7 (18)
IW iWasEnough	Spiritavg 68¢	$718.65	$739.71	+$21.05	45% 10-12 (22)
GT gt7238CTR	G2avg 32¢	$592.3	$561.4	-$9.2	4% 21-461 (482)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Spiritavg 69.2¢	$620.22	$485.42	-$4.72	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 69.2¢	$385.59	$381.61	-$3.98
└ G2 leg	G2avg 31.3¢	$103.22	$103.81	-$0.74
vtcchampion52	Spiritavg 69¢	$306.35	$310.79	+$4.44	48% 855-911 (1766)
NO NotJump	Spiritavg 60.7¢	$746.65	$265.94	+$6.2	54% 421-356 (777)
SE sentrio	Spiritavg 68.3¢	$186.82	$190.89	+$4.07	41% 534-766 (1300)
MA manoamano	Spiritavg 70¢	$147.96	$144.79	-$3.17	55% 12-10 (22)
Rusik7<$100	Spiritavg 69¢	$89.7	$91	+$1.3	— 4-3 (7)
GH ghorrock<$100	Spiritavg 70.4¢	$11.98	$11.91	-$0.07	53% 920-807 (1727)
forsenxdCTR<$100	G2avg 28¢	$0.39	$0.42	+$0.03	48% 359-383 (742)

fantasy7788CTR

Invested

$30,000

Value

$29.5K

PnL

-$503.09

Record

42%

107-147 (254)

Wiretransferxyz

Spirit

Invested

$24,147.5

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$705.04

Record

56%

385-301 (686)

lonmi2511

Spirit

Invested

$17,895.78

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$139.36

Record

60%

667-444 (1111)

SuperMegaManCTR

Invested

$6,860.25

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$21.45

Record

49%

609-633 (1242)

1337zzz1337

Spirit

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$36.23

Record

—

7-0 (7)

Babooou

Spirit

Invested

$4,080

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$120

Record

—

5-3 (8)

Rayaya

Spirit

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$75

Record

—

7-5 (12)

RNGUziCTR

Invested

$3,099.99

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$50

Record

4-158 (162)

rrooster

Spirit

Invested

$2,759.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$40

Record

40%

26-39 (65)

weeeskies

Spirit

Invested

$2,349.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

4-7 (11)

asuka7

Spirit

Invested

$2,102.59

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15.24

Record

15-316 (331)

suleng66

Spirit

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$42.86

Record

11%

6-51 (57)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$1,812.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$35.96

Record

56%

3894-3059 (6953)

Both legs:

Spirit$1,362.8468.4¢+$31.15

G2$449.5229.7¢+$4.82

yishiwucheng

Spirit

Invested

$1,663.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$48.92

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948

Spirit

Invested

$1,267.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$27.16

Record

—

11-7 (18)

iWasEnough

Spirit

Invested

$718.65

Value

$739.71

PnL

+$21.05

Record

45%

10-12 (22)

gt7238CTR

Invested

$592.3

Value

$561.4

PnL

-$9.2

Record

21-461 (482)

suntoriARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$620.22

Value

$485.42

PnL

-$4.72

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

Both legs:

Spirit$385.5969.2¢-$3.98

G2$103.2231.3¢-$0.74

vtcchampion52

Spirit

Invested

$306.35

Value

$310.79

PnL

+$4.44

Record

48%

855-911 (1766)

NotJump

Spirit

Invested

$746.65

Value

$265.94

PnL

+$6.2

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

sentrio

Spirit

Invested

$186.82

Value

$190.89

PnL

+$4.07

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

manoamano

Spirit

Invested

$147.96

Value

$144.79

PnL

-$3.17

Record

55%

12-10 (22)

Rusik7<$100

Spirit

Invested

$89.7

Value

$91

PnL

+$1.3

Record

—

4-3 (7)

ghorrock<$100

Spirit

Invested

$11.98

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

forsenxdCTR<$100

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

359-383 (742)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

18 of 23 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.