Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (43%) · Spirit at 74¢ · $84K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit74¢G226¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$84.5K

Combined PnL

-$14.17

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 73.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit74%

G227%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit3 traders

Total Value$64.7K

Total Shares88,045

Combined PnL-$385.46

G24 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares74,258

Combined PnL+$371.29

Spirit — 43%G2 — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA randomrandomrandom	Spiritavg 74¢	$61.1K	$60.7K	-$412.84	— 4-1 (5)
KateBollingerCTR	G2avg 26¢	$13.0K	$13.3K	+$250	6% 6-91 (97)
VI vibing123CTR	G2avg 26¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$90.29	63% 1097-652 (1749)
RA Rayaya	Spiritavg 73¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$25	— 4-3 (7)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	G2avg 26¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$25	54% 81-69 (150)
relativesignificance	Spiritavg 73¢	$347.73	$350.11	+$2.38	56% 147-116 (263)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	G2avg 26¢	$312	$318	+$6	64% 16-9 (25)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Spiritavg 73¢	$83.65	$84.47	+$0.82	55% 625-514 (1139)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 73¢	$63.85	$64.29	+$0.44
└ G2 leg	G2avg 26¢	$19.8	$20.18	+$0.38

randomrandomrandom

Spirit

Invested

$61,100.53

Value

$60.7K

PnL

-$412.84

Record

—

4-1 (5)

KateBollingerCTR

Invested

$13,000

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$250

Record

6-91 (97)

vibing123CTR

Invested

$4,695.05

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$90.29

Record

63%

1097-652 (1749)

Rayaya

Spirit

Invested

$3,649.95

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$25

Record

—

4-3 (7)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$25

Record

54%

81-69 (150)

relativesignificance

Spirit

Invested

$347.73

Value

$350.11

PnL

+$2.38

Record

56%

147-116 (263)

JuiceFarmCTR

Invested

$312

Value

$318

PnL

+$6

Record

64%

16-9 (25)

ghorrockARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$83.65

Value

$84.47

PnL

+$0.82

Record

55%

625-514 (1139)

Both legs:

Spirit$63.8573¢+$0.44

G2$19.826¢+$0.38

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSpirit 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.